Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Ron Burgundy]

*Edit - Didn’t see the thread for this system. Please move - thanks!*

FFC already chirping about severe with the Friday system. Sheesh, what a start to 2024…

A potent negatively tilted shortwave will dig in from
the central Plains Friday with a surface low developing near the
ArkLaTex. This system appears to have a more favorable thermodynamic
profile with warm surface and dewpoint temperatures and MUCAPE
between 600-800 J/kg. The kinematics of the system also look
favorable for strong to severe storms with bulk shear up to 70+kt
and 0-3km SRH over 700+m2/s2. It`s a little too soon to be diving
into the exact details, but it does appear there is a strong signal
that this system will bring another round of severe weather to the
forecast area Friday afternoon.

 

[jrips27]

 

[griteater]

If we get something big it’s that pac trough pacific shortwave handoff and dipping of the northern stream. That look has been associated with some huge setups in the past View attachment 140621View attachment 140622

We've made some good progress. The trough is dropping east of Seattle. The TPV is slowly trekking west to east across S Canada and underneatth a Greenland block that is trending stronger....and the TPV is pinwheeling there in SE Canada and not racing away.

The last piece I would like to see is for the block and TPV combo to start having more influence on the height pattern behind it, to where flow coming into that combo starts to slow down and back up a bit....sending the full height pattern south a bit and slowing it down

 

[griteater]

3 run temperature trend on EPS for the 5-day period of Jan 16-21

 

[Snowfan]

 

[WNC_Fort]

18ZGFS rolling in. Weekend system cuts as expected but ushers in some cold. Watching for next week's storm.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Less stream separation so far

 

[accu35]

Here it comes

 

[WNC_Fort]

Looks like she's about to cut into Tennessee. Definitely cold. -20s in the Dakotas and 0 in Chicago

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This looks complexity different the northern stream calling the shots this run, might turn out to be flatter then previous runs, and more frontal

 

[Chazwin]

A 1051 high pressure dropping into Montana at hour 156

 

[accu35]

 

[accu35]

not going to be as good of a run for midsouth area

Much better run

 

[jackendrickwx]

heckuva front for western SE

 

[accu35]

 

[J.C.]

When is the last time NW Georgia had ZR in this setup? Never?

 

[SnowedIn1]

View attachment 140635

The cold is pushing

 

[accu35]

Big difference from the gulf coast to northern bama temps

 

[weatherfide]

My location goes from 60 degrees Monday around 4pm to 29 and freezing rain at 1 am! I call BS as I've never seen an arctic front do that before in my area. They always get hung up on the west side of the foothills.

 

[accu35]

Much better