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Pattern Jammin January 2023

The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks


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As crappy as this winter has been for many folks here, just remember that NYC, PHL, & DC all have still yet to see measurable snow this winter, which is nearing unprecedented territory for these locales.

It’s a good feeling going into late January knowing that parts of Alabama, Georgia, & now North Carolina have all seen more snow than much of the NE US megalopolis this winter ?
 
Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track or and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
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Would love to see the 12z EURO throw us some agreement love today!
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like our future winter weather chances are going to come from energy dropping down close behind a leading system that could force a further south and more favorable track or and/or a strong high pressure in a favorable position for a CAD storm.
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Usually for the CAD regions of Upstate and E NC this is our best chance to get winter storms every winter. Atleast with CAD storms you have the cold already locked in when a system moves through. Someone our best winter storms have been CAD storms

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We hug. Everyone likes an underdog!

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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS finally agrees with the GEFS on the return of a more La Niña like pattern near the end of the month, which makes sense given this week’s major -EAMT event with an assist from the MJO and La Niña. Enjoy this weekend’s cold shot, because I doubt we’re gonna see much of that in the SE US in the coming weeks


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I suppose from an ever-hopeful weenie view, at least we're going to get our source region rather frigid. While it's likely that the SE will be warm on average, perhaps we could get lucky with a couple of well-timed CAD events or strong cutters that drive in some artic air briefly for a following system to interact with?

Question. How confident should we be that the SSWE modeled for late January/early February is going to verify? And, what should we look for in modeling going forward to indicate that the modeled SSWE is propagating down and causing a pattern change, and where?

Thanks.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I suppose from an ever-hopeful weenie view, at least we're going to get our source region rather frigid. While it's likely that the SE will be warm on average, perhaps we could get lucky with a couple of well-timed CAD events or strong cutters that drive in some artic air briefly for a following system to interact with?

Question. How confident should we be that the SSWE modeled for late January/early February is going to verify? And, what should we look for in modeling going forward to indicate that the modeled SSWE is propagating down and causing a pattern change, and where?

Thanks.
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0% confidence. Sswe are modeled about as often as 360hr snow storms that never pan out.
 
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