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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Difference here at day 8 between the Euro (1st image) and Euro Control (2nd image)

Euro places more emphasis on the Great Lakes shortwave and squashes the wave in the SW, so it progresses as a cold frontal passage. Euro Control has a sort of perfect timing scenario of separating the 2 streams with the Great Lakes shortwave not being as strong and getting it out front just a bit, with the SW wave being separate and more robust

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Here's the difference between the 2 at the surface at day 9 (Euro 1st / Euro Control 2nd)

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The 12 GFS was a sort of extreme version of the Euro Control where it also kept a stronger wave in the SW, but it buries it a bit, and it comes out a touch slower, so the surface high is moving off the NE coast during the 2nd half of the storm

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Greensboro avg so far : 54.5 /37.0. Which makes for a mean temp 6.2 degrees above average. Though this January is nothing compared to January 1907 up to this point . That month at this time was averaging 64/41 ! This was well over 110 years ago. They don’t make warm Jan’s like they used to . Don’t know how but Greensboro finished that month 2 degrees warmer than Raleigh. Our warmest January record is definitely breakable . Hopefully I see that in my lifetime. Warmest jan for RDU was in 1950 with an average high of 62.3, for Greensboro it was 1907 with an average high of 60.6
 
Wouldn't get excited until at least 5 days away. We definitely not going to put plows on anytime soon as we have seen this scenario a couple of times already this winter.
 
As one would expect, there has been absolutely no consistency in the GFS. Last six runs for 18z next Thursday. On to the ensembles.

This model makes it very difficult to stay sane at times, especially when you have booked a vacation in the mountains with friends during this time period (as I have). Will it rain the entire time? Will it get cold or stay warm? Will it snow? A shame it has to run 4 times a day.
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POWERSTROKE said:
Wouldn't get excited until at least 5 days away. We definitely not going to put plows on anytime soon as we have seen this scenario a couple of times already this winter.
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Hopefully it’s just 1-2 or a mixed bag that doesn’t require any plowing. Or a warm up the next day so no one has to pay for that crap.
 
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