It's a regular maco light isn't it? The closer you get the further it seems to move away
i will NOT get excited over a 200hr euro control run
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
It starts at 192-198…so we good. ?
i will NOT get excited over a 200hr euro control run
Its too late isn’t it
i will NOT get excited over a 200hr euro control run
It’ll be interesting if there’s another increase in noise on the 12z EPS like 0z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Less than 10% of the EPS has legit snow in the Carolinas & GA from this system at day 9-10. Much more likely to be warm/wet w/ the storm shooting off to the NW, cold/dry w/ any hope of a storm well offshore to the SE, or icy if before you have a sniff at snow. If you manage to get the cold air in place before the precip ramps up, then I'd lean towards ice over snow. Oth, that's generally not what's being shown on the few ensemble member solutions that depict a winter storm at this range (the CAD high is well off to the west). Those kind of ice storm setups, where precip is already falling & cold air filters in as this occurs, can work over the southern Plains of TX & OK, but often bust (on the low end) east of the Appalachians.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As much as I don't like to post something like this so far out, I think the EPS control from today hammers home the point about how razor thin the margin of error is in this pattern to score a winter storm.
lexxnchloe
Member
I agree, but its better than showing 70 and rain.
Really cold airmass. Filled with lots of promise. ?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Is that I-85 or 0C? Lol. That’s textbook NC wintry look.
The Euro control is hot garbage used by itself and has been right beyond day 5 exactly one time in the last 20 years.
If you want something solid, key here is pinching energy off the cold and progressive northern stream trough, getting that pinched off energy to amplify around The SW/texas and close off, have the N/S trough speed up thanks to the GOAK energy giving the “kick”, and then have a trailing wave move in when the N/S trough is moving off and we’re left with the cold high associated with it. Very icy route but probably the best route you could take in this pattern. What’s more favored is stream attachment, and overrunning with possible wintry in western SE/warm eastern SE
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Man this look is lovely; Incredible moisture feed with banana high present. I'd like to see that 1029 a tick higher with the precip feed 50-100 miles further south.
Unfortunately, despite the beautiful look, the cold is still marginal for many. This map is the cold push 12 hours later, still not cold enough for most south of I-40 and still not down to 85.
Verbatim this is an I-40 and North job with just small amounts elsewhere, illustrating what the above images portray.
For AL/GA/SC we need that trough to sharpen up and dig a bit more with a stronger cold push. Going to be hard to manage but it is possible; definitely work keeping eyes on, but still a long way out.
Unfortunately, despite the beautiful look, the cold is still marginal for many. This map is the cold push 12 hours later, still not cold enough for most south of I-40 and still not down to 85.
Verbatim this is an I-40 and North job with just small amounts elsewhere, illustrating what the above images portray.
For AL/GA/SC we need that trough to sharpen up and dig a bit more with a stronger cold push. Going to be hard to manage but it is possible; definitely work keeping eyes on, but still a long way out.
iGRXY
Member
That's because it was a huge Ice storm for everyone south of I40 on that control run. Temps in the mid 20's for most.Man this look is lovely; Incredible moisture feed with banana high present. I'd like to see that 1029 a tick higher with the precip feed 50-100 miles further south.
Unfortunately, despite the beautiful look, the cold is still marginal for many. This map is the cold push 12 hours later, still not cold enough for most south of I-40 and still not down to 85.
Verbatim this is an I-40 and North job with just small amounts elsewhere, illustrating what the above images portray.
For AL/GA/SC we need that trough to sharpen up and dig a bit more with a stronger cold push. Going to be hard to manage but it is possible; definitely work keeping eyes on, but still a long way out.
It would have a chance of being epic, all else being equal, if could manage to get the Hudson Bay vortex to ease down to the south side rather than retreating north too.
griteater
Member
That honestly reminds me of the temperature gradient during the February 1994 Ice Storm…below freezing for the western SE and then the CAD in western and central Carolinas with a sharp turn to very warm across southern GA and AL… parts of Florida was pushing 90 during that storm.
Still plenty of noise on the EPS .. potential still exists.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Increase or decrease compared to 00z?
Bready86
Member
@BullCityWx do mind sharing the euro ensemble comparison for your locale?