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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A cold chasing moisture type of look on the 12z ECMWF at day 9. Bleh
Euro is probably going to try to do something large
rburrel2
Member
We need more SER!!!!
Some slight overrunning on the euro for some parts of the south.
now THAT is the beginning looks of how you make it snow in the south.
I thought it was going to try to phase and dig but it's flattening way too quick
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The difference between being warm/wet & cold/dry in this kind of pattern is incredibly small. Oth, it's about the only pattern that could deliver wintry weather to locales south of I-20 so that's a plus right?!
Good luck trying to find a winter storm in that incredibly tiny sweet spot between warm/wet & cold/dry, with north stream shortwaves moving around the base of the Hudson Bay vortex like it's the Daytona 500.
Good luck trying to find a winter storm in that incredibly tiny sweet spot between warm/wet & cold/dry, with north stream shortwaves moving around the base of the Hudson Bay vortex like it's the Daytona 500.
rburrel2
Member
Something in between the GFS and Euro at 216hrs would be a boardwide slammer.
Still a solid look. It’s interesting that the ensembles for the euro were active .. wondering if that continues at 12z but I have a feeling we’re much closer to something than some would have you believe in here. We may hit or we may not ??
cold shot at least looks to be coming regardless
Well everyone gets the pretty blues they wanted. I said it yesterday the SER is our friend here you can't dump the trough in the east unless you want to have a whole lot of sweaty palms that the cold sticks around for the next wave 
It's not the worst look that we've made fantasies over before. I'd just personally rather take my chances on dumping the cold/trough into the plains and bridging it east with a SER reflection vs bodily charging the trough and cold into the SE and hoping to find moisture. Once the sfc high slides offshore without a secondary cold reinforcement it's toastyStill a solid look. It’s interesting that the ensembles for the euro were active .. wondering if that continues at 12z but I have a feeling we’re much closer to something than some would have you believe in here. We may hit or we may not ??
rburrel2
Member
anybody have a source for the 168hr Ukmet or care to post it? Looks similar to euro at 144hrs.
weatherfide
Member
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Pivotal only has Ukmet out to 144 hours. Not sure where you can get a 168hr panel. Does it even run that far?
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rburrel2
Member
Yea it does, I think @griteater has access to it. I've never been able to find it except for the U.K. weather site that doesn't include North America.
