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Pattern Jammin January 2023

ForsythSnow said:
My point is simple, 200 hours from now we don't know until 200 hours have passed. There is no who's right or wrong, it's just observation then. People can have whatever fun or disappointment they see tracking it along the way. There's no harm and they learn or don't learn what could or could not happen. The current and past does not mean the future is the same.
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One point that some don't understand (not talking about you) is there's more to Predicting weather than just what the Models show. Some harps on how bad the pattern is based on a model that's more than 10 days out, yet comes on here and bashes people that post maps showing winter weather 10 days out. I've never understood him and Never will!

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ForsythSnow said:
My point is simple, 200 hours from now we don't know until 200 hours have passed. There is no who's right or wrong, it's just observation then. People can have whatever fun or disappointment they see tracking it along the way. There's no harm and they learn or don't learn what could or could not happen. The current and past does not mean the future is the same.
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If you or someone else don't like my takes on here, there's an ignore button.
 
Snownut said:
One point that some don't understand (not talking about you) is there's more to Predicting weather than just what the Models show. Some harps on how bad the pattern is based on a model that's more than 10 days out, yet comes on here and bashes people that post maps showing winter weather 10 days out. I've never understood him and Never will!

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Because patterns and the planetary-scale processes that dictate them, evolve a lot (like orders of magnitude) more slowly than individual winter storms & meso-microscale dynamics of winter storms do, and are much more predictable with net skill at those ranges. Focus on what you can predict/control at the timescales relevant to what you're looking at. No one should be concerned about the intricate mesoscale dynamics of rain-snow lines or individual QLCSs 7-10 days out, because in today's day & age, you won't be able to predict that with any consistent accuracy day in and out. Oth, continental-planetary scale circulation pattern changes? Totally different animal/apples-oranges.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs doesn’t really look like the GFS. Pretty classic western SE mix bag look though View attachment 131264View attachment 131265
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The GFS has been wild with the swings but with the GEFS and CMC being pretty stable over many runs, I'd bet on something around that solution being the direction we head. The EPS seems more intense with the SER like the CMC early on but progresses out of that after and is also stable.
 
gfs_apcpn_us_64.png
 
prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png


So a 1040 South of Chicago should be plenty cold enough for many of us to snow. Either the cold source is very marginal or the model is wonky. Looking at the temps though, it appears the cold source is just not very cold.

gfs_T2m_us_34.png


gfs_T850_us_34.png


This is where you want the Greenland block setting up just before to send all that true cold south; here it just gets shunted towards Greenland. There always seems to be a monkey wrench.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Aside from the trough itself changing a ton from run-to-run upstream out west, you're gonna have a real hard time lining everything up w/ how fast the northern stream is gonna be next week. Without high-latitude blocking, there's really nothing to hold the 50-50 low in place. hence, your window to squeeze out a winter storm is a lot smaller than it normally is for CAD events around here.

Despite what other posters on here keep saying (probably out of being in denial of reality), patterns do in fact matter, a lot.
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I think we need a support group lol.


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crawford76 said:
For those getting super antsy about winter weather(esp where we receive very little), shoot up to Beech Mountain above 6000'. After a week you'll be praying for Spring lol
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I can agree with this, I've never really understood how people could like frigid Temps and snow cover for days on end. Sure it's nice to have one decent snow around here but after that bring on warm where you can get out and do stuff and enjoy it without 10 layers of clothes on

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GEFS look pretty solid with some overrunning over western SE and even NC .. I like that the euro ensembles also agree with that sort of solution. I’ll still continue to not expect anything out of this as no one should but I can’t hate on the trends at possibly seeing some sort of winter weather in this set up. (Not a winter storm but maybe some winter weather before a return to SER)
 
The Driest January on record was in 1947 at Greensboro 0.00 wow

wettest was a whopping 19.89 in 1973. That seems as extreme to me as the goose egg in 1947. Normal is 2.67. Airport is over 4 so far. Way less than I thought . But man 19 inches in January???
 
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