• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2023

People around here should have enough sense to know anytime you got a legitimate CAD setup with overrunning like the way this us headed, Those CAD areas of upstate and NC gets Ice Storms. Don't need no pattern change either. Not sure why folks keep harping on Patterns you don't need a perfect pattern for ICE just need a Strong high pressure to North locking in cold and moisture over riding that. Just wait and see if that's not what we see in the coming weeks

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk
 
Aside from the trough itself changing a ton from run-to-run upstream out west, you're gonna have a real hard time lining everything up w/ how fast the northern stream is gonna be next week. Without high-latitude blocking, there's really nothing to hold the 50-50 low in place. hence, your window to squeeze out a winter storm is a lot smaller than it normally is for CAD events around here.

Despite what other posters on here keep saying (probably out of being in denial of reality), patterns do in fact matter, a lot.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
33 and rain for Atlanta- Athens. It seems the GFS has finally figured it out lol.

gfs_T2m_seus_36.png
Click to expand...
This might trend colder which I don't want it too!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Aside from the trough itself changing a ton from run-to-run upstream out west, you're gonna have a real hard time lining everything up w/ how fast the northern stream is gonna be next week. Without high-latitude blocking, there's really nothing to hold the 50-50 low in place. hence, your window to squeeze out a winter storm is a lot smaller than it normally is for CAD events around here.

Despite what other posters on here keep saying (probably out of being in denial of reality), patterns do in fact matter, a lot.
Click to expand...
Reality is reality when the verification hour hits 0. It is not reality 200 hours out nor is warmth 200 hours out.
 
The Canadian doesn't show the same look as the GFS for day 8. Basically, cold chasing rain. It then shows this at day 10 with a very cold/dry CAD setup:

1674665643685.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Doesn't dictate what happens 200 hours from now. We will see reality 200 hours from now for 200 hours from now.
Click to expand...

Put lipstick on a pig all you want, but when you stick a trough out west in the means and couple that w/ a +NAO, your chances of getting a winter storm are lower than they normally would be in the SE US, particularly for the Carolinas & GA. Period, end of story.

Can you get a storm? Sure. Can you cherry pick this one or few time(s) "x" number of years ago where it snowed in your backyard when "y" & "z" unfavorable things happened? Sure, and I gave you examples of that, but it absolutely doesn't take away from my main point that this pattern in general just isn't good.

I love seeing all the cold air driving into the CONUS, and that is the only thing that's positive about this pattern, but outside of that, it stinks.

Yes, it's hard to get a winter storm here in the south, anyone that's lived here as long as I did could tell you that obvious fact of life, but it's even harder with the hand we're being dealt. That's my point.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Put lipstick on a pig all you want, but when you stick a trough out west in the means and couple that w/ a +NAO, your chances of getting a winter storm are lower than they normally would be in the SE US, particularly for the Carolinas & GA. Period, end of story.

Can you get a storm? Sure. Can you cherry pick this one or few time(s) "x" number of years ago where it snowed in your backyard when "y" & "z" unfavorable things happened? Sure, and I gave you examples of that, but it absolutely doesn't take away from my main point that this pattern in general just isn't good.

I love seeing all the cold air driving into the CONUS, and that is the only thing that's positive about this pattern, but outside of that, it stinks.

Yes, it's hard to get a winter storm here in the south, anyone that's lived here as long as I did could tell you that obvious fact of life, but it's even harder with the hand we're being dealt. That's my point.
Click to expand...
My point is simple, 200 hours from now we don't know until 200 hours have passed. Who's right or wrong does not matter at all, it's just observation then. People can have whatever fun or disappointment they see tracking it along the way. There's no harm and they learn or don't learn what could or could not happen. The current and past does not mean the future is the same.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top