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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Webberweather53 said:
A 2 day transient cold shot that solidifies the positive NAO downstream, is the only real positive thing I see happening the next few weeks.

The difference between being cold/dry + warm/wet in a pattern like this is miniscule, which isn't good if you're hoping to get lucky & land a winter storm.
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webb is right, in my experience with him the more he sounds like a washed game show host like above the more confident he is and more likely he is reading the pattern well
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well, the huge problem with this is, the pattern isn't even good enough to allow something to show up to begin with inside day 10, you haven't even gotten that far yet, despite all the snow/cold maps you've been quoting at me for the last few weeks.

Wake me up when there's something real to track.
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There is a tendency I’ve noticed especially with the GFS (totally anecdotal) where you’ll see a threat in the long range get lost in the mid range and then trend back in the near term.


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Let's see, the ensembles in the mid range (around until late Feb) show a +AO, -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, neutral WPO and the MJO (if you like the Australian version of it, which I tend to do) cruising into Phase 4 while the EURO disagrees. It is not impossible for us to still get a wintry event but for the vast majority of the SE, you might want to stick a fork in Feb, just a thought. Just FTR, I don't see a March 1993 coming in to save us either. The caveat one should always use when discussing weather in the SE is things can change, and often do, but my confidence in seeing measurable snow this winter is about 20%
 
Webberweather53 said:
This objectively isn't a good pattern. Sure, we can bring up any example we want, but ultimately, when you have -PNA/+NAO, you're making it tougher than usual to get a winter storm & that's just a fact.

Unlike Feb 2014, we were consistently cool-cold in the days-weeks before that storm & had time to build up a real snow pack to the north lock in a deep arctic air mass for a storm to take advantage of. Not a great comparison here because this is a 2-day ish cold shot that's being preceded by a ton of warmth.

February 1989 is much more comparable, but cases like that are fewer & further in between when the large-scale pattern/teleconnections are objectively terrible like they are/have been this winter.
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January 88 was during a +NAO
 
If there was something positive to talk about with this pattern I would have mentioned it by now.

As fickle as winter storm setups already are around here, whatever is coming down the pipe next week is that times 10. It's like trying to ask the Dallas Cowboys not to choke in the playoffs or trying to hit a full court shot in basketball while being blindfolded and spun around several times. Sure it could happen, and yes it is not easy to get snow here, but we're making it that much tougher on ourselves than it really needs to be.
 
Webberweather53 said:
January 1988 & February 1973 (both +NAO snows) also occurred during a strong El Nino that juiced up the subtropical jet and any shortwaves embedded within it.
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Now you've done it. February of 73!

Feb1973SnowfallAccum.png
 
Parked at 41, windchill n 30s and Heavy Rain. We aint sniffing the 55 for a high painted yesterdays point and click.

What a wet Month January has been, gonna end up top 5, and not done yet.
 
We are going to start seeing multiple CAD storms start to show up on all the models by the end of this week. Probably around Friday-Sat. Save this post so you can nag me if I’m wrong.
 
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