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Pattern Jammin January 2023

SER really flexing on GFS this morning. Let’s see where ensembles go. We are likely punting until Nina relaxes. If Nina relaxes.


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rburrel2 said:
Definitely the most noise showing up on the ensemble members this morning since the December threat.
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Like I said last week, wake me up when you actually have a legitimate threat inside day 5. All these fantasy storms and setups you keep raving about at day 10-15 go poof inside the medium range when reality sets in.
 
KyloG said:
Transient cold shots can work, we have had a lot of +NAO winters so cold is usually transient. We always need great timing/luck. Odds are it won't snow but the chance is better when the modeled cold is this deep.

View attachment 131230
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This objectively isn't a good pattern. Sure, we can bring up any example we want, but ultimately, when you have -PNA/+NAO, you're making it tougher than usual to get a winter storm & that's just a fact.

Unlike Feb 2014, we were consistently cool-cold in the days-weeks before that storm & had time to build up a real snow pack to the north lock in a deep arctic air mass for a storm to take advantage of. Not a great comparison here because this is a 2-day ish cold shot that's being preceded by a ton of warmth.

February 1989 is much more comparable, but cases like that are fewer & further in between when the large-scale pattern/teleconnections are objectively terrible like they are/have been this winter.
 
BullCityWx said:
Yeah the new one certainly looks better. Now, like webber has mentioned, lets see if we can pull one of these into the seven day time frame.


New:
View attachment 131235

Old:

View attachment 131236
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I have a feeling that many of those members showing light amounts have a significant amount of sleet/freezing rain in their depictions too, which would make for an even stronger signal. CAD rules!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This objectively isn't a good pattern. Sure, we can bring up any example we want, but ultimately, when you have -PNA/+NAO, you're making it tougher than usual to get a winter storm & that's just a fact.

Unlike Feb 2014, we were consistently cool-cold in the days-weeks before that storm & had time to build up a real snow pack to the north lock in a deep arctic air mass for a storm to take advantage of. Not a great comparison here because this is a 2-day ish cold shot that's being preceded by a ton of warmth.

February 1989 is much more comparable, but cases like that are fewer & further in between when the large-scale pattern/teleconnections are objectively terrible like they are/have been this winter.
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I haven't seen a single person in here argue that this is objectively a good pattern. Thing is, once threats start showing up the pattern doesn't really matter. We track threats here, it's what we do. Most threats don't work out, in any pattern... maybe this threat is even more likely to trend poorly b/c of the underlying pattern, who cares? We track it anyways. As the example posted above, lots of winter storms manifest in the midst of bad patterns, it's not uncommon at all.
 
rburrel2 said:
I haven't seen a single person in here argue that this is objectively a good pattern. Thing is, once threats start showing up the pattern doesn't really matter. We track threats here, it's what we do. Most threats don't work out, in any pattern... maybe this threat is even more likely to trend poorly b/c of the underlying pattern, who cares? We track it anyways. As the example posted above, lots of winter storms manifest in the midst of bad patterns, it's not uncommon at all.
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Well, the huge problem with this is, the pattern isn't even good enough to allow something to show up to begin with inside day 10, you haven't even gotten that far yet, despite all the snow/cold maps you've been quoting at me for the last few weeks.

Wake me up when there's something real to track.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well, the huge problem with this is, the pattern isn't even good enough to allow something to show up to begin with inside day 10, you haven't even gotten that far yet, despite all the snow/cold maps you've been quoting at me for the last few weeks.

Wake me up when there's something real to track.
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You seem to be wide awake already

There absolutely could be an opportunity or two for a minor or moderate event for CAD areas within the next 10-15 days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well, the huge problem with this is, the pattern isn't even good enough to allow something to show up to begin with inside day 10, you haven't even gotten that far yet, despite all the snow/cold maps you've been quoting at me for the last few weeks.

Wake me up when there's something real to track.
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One thing for sure. We shouldnt have severe threat after severe threat to track in January. The good thing is when the not quite cold enough air floods the pattern in march/apr severe weather season will be tame.
 
Rain Cold said:
You seem to be wide awake already

There absolutely could be an opportunity or two for a minor or moderate event for CAD areas within the next 10-15 days.
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Within? More like at least 10-15 days from now. You sure aren't getting it for the bulk of that period with a giant ridge parked overhead.
 
I'm not feeling it for my location, but we already have a threat to track inside ten days. I like our chances a few days after the frontal passage as opposed to this, but there is a small signal either way, especially west of the apps.Screen Shot 2023-01-25 at 9.10.36 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-01-25 at 9.10.53 AM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
I'm not feeling it for my location, but we already have a threat to track inside ten days. I like our chances a few days after the frontal passage as opposed to this, but there is a small signal either way, especially west of the apps.View attachment 131238View attachment 131239
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Unless you're talking about cold rain or thunderstorms, there's no real threat of anything there.
 
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