That would tend to delay the cold air coming east. Good or bad in the end, who knows?
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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God we can’t get a good trend
NCSNOW
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Sanford ,Albermarle, Burlington all at or below freezing. Sanford 29/27 last check. Same here. Metros are upper 30s.
To get to upper 50s tommorow, must gonna be stout south winds. Rain should be here before sunrise per nws.
To get to upper 50s tommorow, must gonna be stout south winds. Rain should be here before sunrise per nws.
Yeah, this is an above-average confidence time frame. I'll just go with cool rain in honor of ground hog day.
CMC looked better than the GFS .. overall though operationals sucked gunk … but they are operationals and the gfs looked extremely different than it’s 18z ensemble so we will see where 00z ensemble goes .. but it’s best to go to bed now before the damage gets worse for some of u to handle
Lot of different looks for this time period over the past 7 runs .. certainly nothing concrete here but nothing fun to look at tonight 
GEFS think the operational is a bit aggressive with that ridging so that’s good but still this is a scenario where we need the SER for big time moisture but too much will give us rain and the Ohio valley jackpot winter weather. ??
we march on to tomorrow 
we march on to tomorrow 
Six Mile Wx
Member
Big shift on the Euro Op, let’s see what the EPS says 
CltNative90
Member
Positive trend on the EPS as well. Cold hasn’t gotten pushed back any further and in fact appears to come east about 24 hours earlier than the 12z.
Pretty big increase in the snow means as well from 12z.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A 2 day transient cold shot that solidifies the positive NAO downstream, is the only real positive thing I see happening the next few weeks.
The difference between being cold/dry + warm/wet in a pattern like this is miniscule, which isn't good if you're hoping to get lucky & land a winter storm.
The difference between being cold/dry + warm/wet in a pattern like this is miniscule, which isn't good if you're hoping to get lucky & land a winter storm.
Parker
Member
Noisiest eps snowfall chart for my area all winter.
Transient cold shots can work, we have had a lot of +NAO winters so cold is usually transient. We always need great timing/luck. Odds are it won't snow but the chance is better when the modeled cold is this deep.
rburrel2
Member
Definitely the most noise showing up on the ensemble members this morning since the December threat.
rburrel2
Member
Nice to see the GEPS jump on the bandwagon. It had be pretty warm compared to the other ensemble means.
ATLwxfan
Member
Do you still see an opportunity at the end of February into early March?
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CltNative90
Member
Have to say that’s a pretty decent cold signal showing up around the 3rd. Even when the ridge reestablishes at 500 mb, there would likely still be cold air trapped at the surface for a couple days. I agree with Webb that we likely don’t get a big time winter storm, but could certainly see a light to moderate ice event in CAD areas with moisture upglide from the ridge before the cold air gets scoured out.
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27.7 this morning, going to be quite the turnaround for it to get to 60 with possible storms today (seriously doubt any storms up this way tbh)