Euro usually likes to hold energy back the most as a bias and is doing so the most out of all the models. Let’s see it’s ensembles first but even so, it does eject everything out east with time still
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lots of cold air over the top. Just need that wave to kick
Wtf? How is there a SER with the PV there and it that cold in the NE? Some years just mean they are not going to cooperate
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
So basically it doesn’t have a clue either
This was the last event here to produce anything over a minor accumulation. My only complaint is that it was gone the next day. Even though it can snow in crappy patterns it would be better if it happened when the cold could last longer than a day or two.May I? I know some of you have a proclivity to talk in absolutes which is never, in my opinion, very wise. I always reflect back on this particular event when people start cliff diving over the MJO and AO.
Not one or two factors are always important. I still say it is a crap shoot most of the time. Early Feb, 2020, we were in Phase 5 MJO (warmest on average phase for early Feb) with an AO index approaching a record, +6 which resulted in the following:
Looks to me some timing issues between the major models. Not an "if" but a "when" on cold arriving in the SE (at least for a short bit) somewhere around Feb 3rd-5th. Will we get a short wave after the front though? Who knows.
OK. Let's play the extrapolate the ten-day operational game.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
If it ejects.OK. Let's play the extrapolate the ten-day operational game.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
Sometimes they get stuck down there
That’s a lot of ridge to contend with..OK. Let's play the extrapolate the ten-day operational game.
That look screams ice storm for CAD areas 24-48 hours later.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Big time cold dropping in on GFS
I get energy holding back would raise heights on the east coast. But that's a closed 588 ridge on steroids like you see with a jacked Aleutian ridge and a PV over Seattle. Not with a PV pressing down and ridging off the west coast. That's ridiculous and doesn't add up.
Lots of cold air over the top. Just need that wave to kick
Cary_Snow95
Member
I tend to agree. If a PV is in that location as shown then the ridge would not flex as far north as is being shown… and with the battleground between the two, there should be a significant storm
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like happy hour is going to throw out something at hour 282…
It may not need to though. SW flow aloft alone should do it so long as the arctic high to our NW keeps sliding ESE.
JHS
Member
Ice in the CAD regions on 2-5-2023 on the GFS.
If you’re going to dump out high pressures like that you’re going to be asking for some sort of CAD event to take hold eventually.
Getting that cutoff/trough into the GOAK around day 7-9 is key in this pattern to progressing it east.