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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Wild Weather Monger said:
I haven't found the precip maps yet for this time frame, but it's safe to assume that there was accumulating snow from near Shreveport to W. Tennesee at least.
gem_T2m_us_41.png
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pretty much a ice srorm throughout the whole midsouth region
 
Looking at the updated teleconnections today, the only two good things I can say is the PNA looks to go positive again around the 2/5 or so and the MJO while moving into phase 4 looks to be amping down. Both the AO and NAO stay clearly positive. Like I said earlier, we’re really fighting a hard battle to see any potential through the 1st half of February
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the updated teleconnections today, the only two good things I can say is the PNA looks to go positive again around the 2/5 or so and the MJO while moving into phase 4 looks to be amping down. Both the AO and NAO stay clearly positive. Like I said earlier, we’re really fighting a hard battle to see any potential through the 1st half of February
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The NAO being positive doesn't worry me anymore. We've had to snow with a +NAO since 2010. When we have had it lately we've wasted it. The AO is concerning and the MJO certainly is. The MJO has driven the pattern it seems for years now. Earlier this month everyone was thinking cold because of phase 8. Models showed warmth and it never got cold and looking back the MJO never went to phase 8. So the MJO forecast was the one wrong. So once again we have a discrepancy with its temp forecast vs its MJO forecast. Hopefully its colder pattern is correct and its MJO forecast is the one off like it was when it called for phase 8. That's my straw grasping for today. And if it does go the warm phases the 1st week in Feb we know it'll take all month to get out of them. And then we'll, that's pretty much a wrap. Nowhere to kick the can anymore then.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The NAO being positive doesn't worry me anymore. We've had to snow with a +NAO since 2010. When we have had it lately we've wasted it. The AO is concerning and the MJO certainly is. The MJO has driven the pattern it seems for years now. Earlier this month everyone was thinking cold because of phase 8. Models showed warmth and it never got cold and looking back the MJO never went to phase 8. So the MJO forecast was the one wrong. So once again we have a discrepancy with its temp forecast vs its MJO forecast. Hopefully its colder pattern is correct and its MJO forecast is the one off like it was when it called for phase 8. That's my straw grasping for today. And if it does go the warm phases the 1st week in Feb we know it'll take all month to get out of them. And then we'll, that's pretty much a wrap. Nowhere to kick the can anymore then.
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May I? I know some of you have a proclivity to talk in absolutes which is never, in my opinion, very wise. I always reflect back on this particular event when people start cliff diving over the MJO and AO.

Not one or two factors are always important. I still say it is a crap shoot most of the time. Early Feb, 2020, we were in Phase 5 MJO (warmest on average phase for early Feb) with an AO index approaching a record, +6 which resulted in the following:

1610993047422-png.66411
 
SD said:
While everyone is looking at day 10+ Thursday is going to give a decent amount of people on this board a shot at flurries or snow showers. East of the apps its rain or graupel
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I've been watching it. 3km NAM has some nice flurry activity all the way to Atlanta! I'm watching Thursday night for my best shot, when temps are cold enough. It's probably technically graupel but I don't care. I'll be watching!
 
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