Huge changes in the Pacific features run to run even at this lead time. Low confidence in any solution is in order.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Definitely going backwards here with the differences between 6z and 12z.
DobsonCityWx
Member
JB has had a rough year. Flagstaff getting a Top 2 winter and California has enough snowpack that will likely outlive him tbh.
we've basically traded any shot we have at snow so that the Southwest to avoid/delay societal collapse from lack of water, was it worth it?
iGRXY
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
12z GFS ain’t pretty.
ATLwxfan
Member
Hello ridgey my old friend…
Though it is getting beat back by hour 240.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Though it is getting beat back by hour 240.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Doesn’t look bad big high pressure moving in probably some sort of overrunning event will be shown. Again you aren’t going to get the same look every run 240 hours out .. that’s not how models work. The premise should be find the cold make sure it makes it through to the east and then look underneath for energy
Not far from a big dog on the CMC. Again still around D10 but models continue to dance all around the idea of cold with energy and moisture close by. I like our chances, regardless how small this window of opportunity may be
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Both not good in their own ways as the new run is just a cool shot and thats it. The old run would set something up because of the western ridging. You know I'm still not sure why I'm keeping tabs on this. Better to look at ensembles.
Cary_Snow95
Member
That’s 00z CMC
Meh. Alaskan ridge go see Santa.
We can't win. You would think this would be near a perfect setup. Of course this is fantasy land (especially being the GFS).
12z GFS at hour 300:
12z GFS at hour 300:
I love not seeing big perfect winter storms 200+ hours out because things will change. Again, no one should have their hopes up at all as the background pattern is bad and we should be getting consistent warmth with SER were getting lucky by even having a small window of opportunity in this pattern.
Cary_Snow95
Member
It’s close multiple times. Players are still there
rburrel2
Member
If you go back and and look at all the ensemble runs nothing has really changed with regard to timing for our best window. We're now around 228hrs from when the front pushes through if you average all the ensembles and we open up the window to score.
All this stuff the GFS has been showing and on off before that is very suspect and not surprisingly went away this run.
Being that our best window is still between 228-300hrs, we don't really have a hint of how the evolution will actually play out. All we can take away at this point is odds are good that we will have a very strong high pressure dominating the country with arctic air to tap into.
All this stuff the GFS has been showing and on off before that is very suspect and not surprisingly went away this run.
Being that our best window is still between 228-300hrs, we don't really have a hint of how the evolution will actually play out. All we can take away at this point is odds are good that we will have a very strong high pressure dominating the country with arctic air to tap into.