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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Got down to 27.9 in the heat island of Cary. It’s still very sketchy but this is the first time in a while where models at least agree on the main components of a storm in a specific time range. Now where those components set up. That’s a different story
 
Ideally we want the TPV situated around the border. This definitely favors the western and middle south areas like AR, W TENN, W MISS, and CAD areas of the Carolinas. But this would almost certainly be a repeat in terms of precip type from Jan 2022. Front end snow to ICE with a heavy emphasis on the ICE for a lot of folks including the mountains IF the current setup were to happen. Right now I am paying attention phase, but this could easily be a head fake and we just continue with the current pattern of cold rains. It's an easy path to a winter storm as the H5 pattern will have the SER for a fact with an active southern jet. It's all about the location of the TPV and keeping the really cold dry air feed around Quebec and the Northeast.
 
Invariably we will get a pants bulging SER at 12z to unleash the lemmings. The next few days of model runs won’t be for the faint of heart.
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iGRXY said:
Ideally we want the TPV situated around the border. This definitely favors the western and middle south areas like AR, W TENN, W MISS, and CAD areas of the Carolinas. But this would almost certainly be a repeat in terms of precip type from Jan 2022. Front end snow to ICE with a heavy emphasis on the ICE for a lot of folks including the mountains IF the current setup were to happen. Right now I am paying attention phase, but this could easily be a head fake and we just continue with the current pattern of cold rains. It's an easy path to a winter storm as the H5 pattern will have the SER for a fact with an active southern jet. It's all about the location of the TPV and keeping the really cold dry air feed around Quebec and the Northeast.
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This is definitely something that has to be absolutely perfect timing for this to work out and even then it’s pushing it. Like I said last night looking at the teleconnections for that timeframe, it’s just hard to imagine that this “potential” stays on the models inside 5 days out or so.
 
Chazwin said:
This is definitely something that has to be absolutely perfect timing for this to work out and even then it’s pushing it. Like I said last night looking at the teleconnections for that timeframe, it’s just hard to imagine that this “potential” stays on the models inside 5 days out or so.
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I'd expect the GEFS to start losing the cold coming east. It's now solidly predicting phase 4 of the MJO. Yesterday it seemed to want to weaken and maybe head to cod
 
Chazwin said:
This is definitely something that has to be absolutely perfect timing for this to work out and even then it’s pushing it. Like I said last night looking at the teleconnections for that timeframe, it’s just hard to imagine that this “potential” stays on the models inside 5 days out or so.
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I'd argue it doesn't have to be perfect timing. Especially for ice. The way things are modeled to be configured we will have several days of ideal high placement for CAD and the source region is true arctic air under the polar vortex. Even if a system is a little late to eject our way after the frontal passage we could still be looking at a severe ice storm.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Problem will be a little too much western dumpage. But the trough on the west coast is more east this run.
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Too much western dumpage like I said will give you this, although this isn't our timeframe. It's what is after this that makes more sense as the arctic air drops SEward.
 
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