Fab Feb is our only hope. ?
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
6z GFS tried to get a late month clipper/late bloomer action fwiw (which isn't much lol)
Honestly I think it’s worth something. I’ve seen no reason as to why this colder period isn’t coming from overnight models. Seems very consistent with guidance but still not getting a great read on exactly how energy transpires during this time (which is fair at this range)
But good lord GFS is now dropping the coldest air of the season on its 06z run. (Remember this is during one of the worst patterns known to mankind)
whatalife
Moderator
For those wondering if it is still winter…it is. 
Thats the story of our life
The 0z Canadian and European both looked similar at day 10. Cold air undercutting from the west and plenty of moisture being supplied by the SER. Plenty of days to track this potential, but at least we have two models on the same page.
Canadian:
European:
Canadian:
European:
Is it just me or does it look like it doesn’t undercut enough to produce anything but rain?
Maybe the euro. You could argue that the mountains will keep most of the cold on the western side. But the Canadian has a better push of cold from the north (high weaker but in better position). If that went out a few more frames there would certainly be wintery precip east of the mountains. But again, we have many days to see if this has legs and to see what ultimately works out.
22 this morning. That Bermuda is going to be springing to life.
NCSNOW
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This is also how you got that epic gfs fantasy run several cycles back. Same mechanics /time period. It still qualifies as a long shot, but it is a shot.
NCSNOW
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With Ground Hogs day fast approaching. Remind me when it gets here in 8-9 days to be careful what to wish for. GFS starts a burst of snow/sleet over to a mega freezing rain Storm: Followed up by temps dipping way down in the single digits the next couple of nights , as we would no doubt be sitting there with no power.
J1C1111
Member
22 this morning. That Bermuda is going to be springing to life.
[/QUOTEBring it. I haven't lost power in a good winter storm since December of 2018. Fine by me. I'm ready. Let's see what happens over the next week with the models. At least we have a little hope at the moment.With Ground Hogs day fast approaching. Remind me when it gets here in 8-9 days to be careful what to wish for. GFS starts a burst of snow/sleet over to a mega freezing rain Storm: Followed up by temps dipping way down in the single digits the next couple of nights , as we would no doubt be sitting there with no power.
NoSnowATL
Member
42. Had to warm up the vehicle this morning.
NCSNOW
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Even the CFS is on board with the 0Z Euro, 0ZCanadian and 6z GFS Op for the 2/2-2/3 period. I do see the GFS op and CFS advertise normal to slightly above normal after this till mid Feb, like Webb, Fro have been saying; However the CFS has changed a lot as you approach and pass mid Feb, really establishes the trough in the East last 10-14 days of FEB. Not gonna go dig ensembles and its the CFS and Long Range .
24.8 here my knee high corn is in trouble
CMCE for D10, gonna be an epic battle zone between massive artic airmass and stubborn SER warmth. Somewhere in between will eventually be a significant winter storm (or 2) especially a good ice storm in there.
Not much ensemble support with that one system (6z) but starts looking better D10 and beyond but that's lala land. I will say models usually start telling where your heading, they just more times than not do so too quickly. I'm still all in with that much cold air just to our north, eventually we get just enough to bring wintry to, the bare minimum CAD areas, and maybe, just maybe can sink deep enough SE for a few lucky others. Just have to be patient
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The location and movement of the TPV will be key to this whole scenario. Something similar to cluster 2 or better would work. If TPV shifts further west and the SER flexes quite a bit, we can hang it up. Certainly is a big battle/clash of two different airmasses.
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These clouds on the Beech summit cam this morning 