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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Cary_Snow95 said:
Yes the next 10 days is torch. Doesn’t get interesting until potentially 2/2-2/4
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I wouldn't exactly call the next ten days torch.

The period is almost certainly devoid of any meaningful winter precip or frigid cold, but rather looks to be variable between slightly below normal cold and milder periods with the longest mild stretch several days before the hoped-for arctic front arrives. Now, if that front gets stalled out to the west, which is more likely than not, then torch is in order IMHO.
 
Yea, tabbed through the EPS, and control and member 50 looked good. most in between meh. Not saying there was nothing there, but not as many hits as 00Z.

NC peeps, don't look at member 50.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ICON very bad lol
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I mean we’ve got some ridging off the left coast but the orientation is dog water and it’s just dumping vodka cold into Seattle and it looks like the rotation is priming for a raging perma +EPO to drive the final nail for east coast snow lovers. Clock is ticking9B991728-3936-4946-99A7-38D9FB0BADA5.png
 
So this run has lower heights off the Pacific NW, but the ridge orientation into Alaska might just displace the TPC over Hudson Bay a lot further south in the coming panels. Let's see.
gfs_z500a_namer_22.png
 
CMC changed its tune a lot with overrunning scenerio at the end. Again things change a lot around 240 hours .. we need the angle of cold to come in right, we need enough cold air to hamper SER.. no need to get excited and no need to be pessimistic right now. Can go either way. But It seems we’re at least trending to a colder period very early February (will turn possibly quickly back to a SER after this period so we need things to work out quickly to be able to score something) .. I have a good feeling someone in the east sees some form of winter precip during this time period. More likely to be western SE or Ohio valley right now per how these things usually turn out but no one knows for sure right now.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Looks like more SER on the GEFS means more rain events. ??‍♂️ Long ways to go with this but you should bank more on a non wintry solution to this story.

Edit: looks like it was just slightly delayed so not all terrible news but you get the story
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Gefs has been showing more cold past few runs for the Deep South consistently. Sure it may moderate back a little but colder than what we have now
 
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