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Pattern Jammin January 2023

iGRXY said:
While snow chances are slim through probably feb 15, I will say that having very cold air situated along the US/CA border with a SER is a very good recipe for an overrunning event. Couple that with CAD and there’s always a possibility for what the GFS shows but I think we would synoptically have to get there differently than how the GFS did. Don’t get your hopes up, but even in bad patterns, there’s ways to score some type of frozen.
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I agree. What the GFS showed obviously isn’t happening. If there were to be an overrunning system in that pattern I would expect it to be much more CAD based for the Carolinas. I know we’ve both brought this up before, but to me something with a footprint more similar to the February 1994 storm… impacting the western parts of the southeast and the CAD areas east of the Apps.
 
if a model shows 2-4 feet we can at least entertain the idea of some very cold rain and scattered flurries becoming a risk early February. better than hot water.
 
An interesting piece from the commodity wx group yesterday...the incoming central US cold air has a better chance of pushing further SE earlier in February than later based on the tropical forcing and atmospheric teleconnections. Not sure how much truth there is to that, but was interesting to see.
17d985ed7823a0591786f3026940656f.jpg


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
An interesting piece from the commodity wx group yesterday...the incoming central US cold air has a better chance of pushing further SE earlier in February than later based on the tropical forcing and atmospheric teleconnections. Not sure how much truth there is to that, but was interesting to see.
17d985ed7823a0591786f3026940656f.jpg


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Yeah… the MJO honestly doesn’t look horrible. Back in February 2021, it was going through phases 5/6 and amping up, which gave really no chance of cold pushing further southeast because the SER was too strong.
 
SD said:
There's an ugly outcome that lives within this that's undesirable for a good part of the carolinas and NE ga where its not cold enough to snow not warm enough to be enjoyable most days
100% mid View attachment 130867
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That’s a pretty ---- pattern, cold or warm or snow. Lots of 40s coming up if that holds
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s a pretty ---- pattern, cold or warm or snow. Lots of 40s coming up if that holds
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Yeah there's a decent amount of support for it in the plumes. It's probably a relatively short duration deal as the trough in the west takes over and the vortex north of the lakes loses influence but it sets up a crappy 3-6 day period where we watch others be warm and Seattle/Portland snow
 
18z GFS, another CAD battle for central NC/SC next Thursday:

1674338652621.png

Lets see if the coastal front gets pushed eastward some (like what happened for tomorrows setup)
 
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