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Pattern Jammin January 2023

I’m confused as to why we even look at models when their members are completely different. It just seems like a waste.
To find as many warm maps as possible. Ens show cold, warm Op leads the way. Op shows cold, warm Ens lead the way. You know how it goes.
 
Over the past 3-5 days or so, there have been a handful of long-range operational runs that drop a TPV into a similar location in the upper midwest at different times. CMC, Euro, and now the GFS with its epic fantasy storm.

My point is while of course, the 12Z GFS will not happen verbatim, a big artic outbreak deep into the CONUS in the 7-day+ time frame is a possibility given the deep cold in our source region unlike what we've had to endure for the past three weeks or so.
 
I’m confused as to why we even look at models when their members are completely different. It just seems like a waste.
Same reason you watch a Panthers game, you can fantasize about a win, but a loss is always the safest bet!
 
Minor differences. LOL.

I mean, we're not talking about two weeks away either.
gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

ec-fast_z500a_namer_8.png
 
While snow chances are slim through probably feb 15, I will say that having very cold air situated along the US/CA border with a SER is a very good recipe for an overrunning event. Couple that with CAD and there’s always a possibility for what the GFS shows but I think we would synoptically have to get there differently than how the GFS did. Don’t get your hopes up, but even in bad patterns, there’s ways to score some type of frozen.
 
While snow chances are slim through probably feb 15, I will say that having very cold air situated along the US/CA border with a SER is a very good recipe for an overrunning event. Couple that with CAD and there’s always a possibility for what the GFS shows but I think we would synoptically have to get there differently than how the GFS did. Don’t get your hopes up, but even in bad patterns, there’s ways to score some type of frozen.
That could happen but it would be a Smaller storm than what the gfs just showed. We all know that shown would be a once every 50yrs storm.

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