Yep, lets get this under day 7 and have some other model support before we truly get excited.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
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- Dec 2, 2016
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White Ground in New Orleans
This is at the heart of the storm.. you see we actually need the SER to get such a widespread precip event like this because of the temp gradient that is presented. Those gradients fuel storms like these.
But we’re asking to be on the perfect side of the placement of SER and polar vortex at 270 hours which we all know won’t happen this far out. We could easily be 70 degrees by 18z at the same time
But we’re asking to be on the perfect side of the placement of SER and polar vortex at 270 hours which we all know won’t happen this far out. We could easily be 70 degrees by 18z at the same time
Every one of us on here would have a better shot at winning the powerball. With that being said, let’s do this GFS.
For the ages.
CltNative90
Member
Looks a lot like the long overrunning event the GFS was showing for a couple runs in February 2021, before everything shifted west. Not getting too excited over one model run but interesting to say the least.
Kuchera snow totals for both storms.
Someday it would be fun to have a storm like this.
Someday it would be fun to have a storm like this.
That’s why it showed that long strip of ice and sleet. Cold air is just too shallow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wake me up when this gets inside day 6 with multi-model/multi-run support.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
At least we are seeing fantasy storms now. That is a step in the right direction. However, it needs lots more support before I will even raise an eyebrow.
Yeah, I'm not sure how many times there has been a similar winter storm for the SE. We've had two-foot snowstorms but man this would be the storm of the century(s).
Tell the truth man. If by some miracle this is still there at 18z, we'll all be glued to the screen for the next episode at 00Z LMAO.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
The MA and NE crowd are licking their chops knowing that this will trend NW with time.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Ok so two approaches I can think of:
1. Bribe/pay/manipulate/appease/convince whomever we have to to make this happen
2. Find the right superstitious ritual. Wearing the right thing, drinking from the right cup, using the right pen...
Whatever it takes but we gotta be on our game and bring this one home! ?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yes, weather porn is addictive.
12z Canadian is similar at day 10 with the very cold/dry air to the NW. This could be a setup where a SE ridge works in our favor. The cold pushes in from the NW undercutting the warm air from the SE ridge. JB stated many years back that the cold air would usually undercut more than what was shown on the LR models.
Canadian dewpoints at day 10:
Canadian dewpoints at day 10:
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Let me add to that list:
- Do not purchase a sled, shovel, ice melt, snow blowers, chains or anything that would jinx us.
- Appease the snow gods by sacrificing a chicken each Sunday for lunch.
- Do not shave or get a haircut until it snows
- Wear the same underwear until it has to be thrown away.... never do you dare wash it.
- Never tell any family members of a pending snow storm, never post any tweets about it, and never discuss model outputs with co-workers, even if it is 24 hours out.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’m guilty of the last one. I’ve told family members and usually end up looking like a fool.
By the way none of the individual members had even remotely close to the 12z GFS but some presented some small winter precip events .. 18z and beyond will change
I’m confused as to why we even look at models when their members are completely different. It just seems like a waste.