Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Shaggy]

hrrr was meh on rain View attachment 130773

3k nam fires that 2nd line of storms that really boosts our totals on the model. The HRRR and FV3 hi res do not have that line of storms.

 

[SD]

29 this morning

 

[SD]

 

[iGRXY]

I got a feeling we’re going to get a Miller B at some point during the next 3 weeks. Too much CAD potential already showing up in extended timeframes and CAD beats SER out 9/10 times around here. Problem is it almost certainly will be ice as the upper levels will be above average. As much moisture setting up over the southeast you’re just asking for repeatedly developing 50/50 lows as these things head NE. That’s why I don’t trip about SER flexes because I already know in the Western Carolinas and NEGA we will be sitting under 40 degree grey skies the majority of the time and with some good timing get at least maybe some onset snow to ice

 

[EmersonGA]

31.5 and beautiful this morning

 

[rburrel2]

The PV looks permanently busted on the gfs… lots of cold lobes in mid-latitudes but the pacific is just killing us. Good thing is if the arctic blocking materializes it won’t take much for a threat to materialize. I’m still cautiously optimistic.

 

[bigstick10]

already dark and gloomy overcast in ATL.....

 

[Southern Track]

Updated MJO today showing GEFS heading in the warm phases while Euro Ensembles and CFS want to head to the COD

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Dropped off to 24.4 last night. They've got IP/ZR in the forecast late tonight and tomorrow morning could I get my 3rd WWA issued? I've been under 2 WWA's so far that I never seen anything but a cold rain. lol

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and sleet after midnight. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

SUNDAY
Sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Rain. Little or no sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs around 40. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol Feb 2021 vibes

 

[Flotown]

Lol Feb 2021 vibes View attachment 130794View attachment 130795

id take feb 2021 in a minute

 

[Mitch West]

Lol Feb 2021 vibes View attachment 130794View attachment 130795

Maybe it can do the opposite it did then and trends towards unloading it on us instead to our West. Lol

Losing that pattern in the medium range was brutal to watch unfold.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Lol Feb 2021 vibes View attachment 130794View attachment 130795

2 degrees above normal at 850. Let me go get my Speedo! In all seriousness though get ready for some cold rain CAD events they coming!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Another Mtn Snow day

 

[LukeBarrette]

View attachment 130808
Another Mtn Snow day

We haven’t had any good trends this winter east of the mountains but maybe we can sneak a little something out of this?

 

[Chazwin]

Lol Feb 2021 vibes View attachment 130794View attachment 130795

It is but you gotta remember for those of us in the western and central Carolinas, we really didn’t get that warm during that period. Lots of CAD. There is a lot of similarities over the next couple weeks to February 1994 that produced that huge ice/sleet storm for the western SE and western/central Carolinas. The SER is flexing, but there is definitely signs of a lot of CAD, and we all know how that ends 95% of the time

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Feb 2021 vibes are hard with this

 

[Chandler]

This winter in a gif. Late bloomer followed by a mega cutter?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Flashbacks intensifies

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Flashbacks intensifies View attachment 130813

Now all it’s gotta do is bleed over ?