Pattern Jammin January 2023

[rburrel2]

Here you can see how the euro goes bonkers with adiabatic cooling at 850mb from the SE flow lifting over the surface wedge/mountains... That's all thanks to a robust shortwave going neutral tilt over the MS river. On the other hand, the gfs has a faster/weaker/flatter wave and keeps winds out of the SW at 850mb as the storm passes over so no cooling at 850mb.

 

[weather bubba]

This would be ugly. View attachment 131360View attachment 131359

That would solve the remaining tree removal problems at my house the hard way! I still have a couple of pine trees that could go. Hopefully between now and then the models will trend colder and this will turn into the snowstorm many of us have been waiting for. I'm sure the models will change between now and then. By the way, one of the local meteorologists mentioned that the weather might get interesting towards the end of the seven day forecast period. Now I see what she was referring to.

 

[iGRXY]

Here you can see how the euro goes bonkers with adiabatic cooling at 850mb from the SE flow lifting over the surface wedge/mountains... That's all thanks to a robust shortwave going neutral tilt over the MS river. On the other hand, the gfs has a faster/weaker/flatter wave and keeps winds out of the SW at 850mb as the storm passes over so no cooling at 850mb.View attachment 131370View attachment 131371

Another good look is even with the Euro, you're likely not going to drive any surface LP into that strong of a HP in that position with that much cold air available. More than likely it would've been colder at least at the surface, potentially in the mid-levels if you shift that surface low further Southeast, which likely would be the case if this look held true.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS honestly looked better at 06z with the TPV extension further SW/deeper GOAK cutoff, and slightly higher heights over BC, biggest concern here is progressiveness. That’s how we lost the last one

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Things to look for today
Stream separation
More digging of the Arctic trough
deeper GOAK trough
Higher heights around BC to dig the Arctic trough. We have went a positive direction with number 1 but it’s far out still

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

ICON starts the morning off on a sour note.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah icon has some disruptive energy around the Midwest that messes with any trailing feed of high pressure, and is rather progressive

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yeah icon has some disruptive energy around the Midwest that messes with any trailing feed of high pressure, and is rather progressive View attachment 131378

Yeah, what squirreled the whole run was losing the ridge along the Canadian coast around day 5.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is not far off honestly, we could
Take the route of a further south TPV instead of wedging. It’s harder but would
Probably be a cleaner route

 

[iGRXY]

The much lower heights in the Atlantic is a positive as fro stated above. Get that TPV a little further south

 

[packfan98]

This is not far off honestly, we could
Take the route of a further south TPV instead of wedging. It’s harder but would
Probably be a cleaner route
View attachment 131384

The much lower heights in the Atlantic is a positive as fro stated above. Get that TPV a little further south

Y'all take the discussion to the new Fab Feb thread - https://southernwx.com/community/threads/fail-or-fab-february-2023.1174/

 

[SD]

26 this morning 10th low since 1/7 that has been 32 or below. Remember when there was concern we wouldn't get below freezing in January

 

[EmersonGA]

26 this morning 10th low since 1/7 that has been 32 or below. Remember when there was concern we wouldn't get below freezing in January

#torch2023. It was 23.4 this morning and its my 11th freeze of the month with a few more frosts as well.

 

[RBR71]

26 this morning 10th low since 1/7 that has been 32 or below. Remember when there was concern we wouldn't get below freezing in January

25.3 this morning and 13th below freezing morning, I had 2 other mornings were 32.5 but didn't count those because didn't want to seem like I was piling on. Lol

 

[EthanLovesWeather]

Does anyone have MJO phase 3 ENSO negative 2-m air temp anomaly CONUS maps for January and February? Where do I access them. Please advise.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol I didn’t expect this at all

 

[SD]

Lol I didn’t expect this at allView attachment 131500

Rainy, dreary, cold

 

[rburrel2]

Lol I didn’t expect this at allView attachment 131500

Really not too extreme in the Southeast... Midwest took the brunt of it.

 

[LickWx]

Rainy, dreary, cold

I was told not to expect warmth and in fact weeks of 40s and cold rain. This January has a shot at being the warmest since 1990. We are very due for a warm jan . 2000-2020 have seen quite a bit of chilly jans

 

[KyloG]

Does anyone have MJO phase 3 ENSO negative 2-m air temp anomaly CONUS maps for January and February? Where do I access them. Please advise.

I have this...

Tabelle MJO - MeteoNetwork

Tabelle MJO

www.meteonetwork.it

 

[RBR71]

25 another brisk morning

 

[iGRXY]

25

 

[SnowQueen]

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/observations
Click hourly observations from area airports.
Then look for Charlotte.
Or click NC or SC weather roundup.

Thank you so much!

 

[BullCityWx]

The coldest high this month in Charlotte is going to be 44. There were only two highs in the 40s for the entire month. As of right now, it is the warmest January since 1990.

 

[J1C1111]

The coldest high this month in Charlotte is going to be 44. There were only two highs in the 40s for the entire month. As of right now, it is the warmest January since 1990.

That's why in my opinion February will be colder than January in opinion. Want take much to beat those two highs in the 40s even though there will be warm spells mixed as always in February.

 

[CltNative90]

The coldest high this month in Charlotte is going to be 44. There were only two highs in the 40s for the entire month. As of right now, it is the warmest January since 1990.

It'll beat 1990 after all is said and done. We stand at 48.3 mean temp for the month, before today. January 1990 was only 0.2 degrees warmer than we've been so far at 48.5. Almost 70 today, 50 tonight and around 60 tomorrow will easily overcome that 0.2 degree difference. Believe it or not though, our top 10 warmest January's were all pre-1990, most recent being 1974. We'll probably be right on the cusp of being in the top 10 this year.

Climate Top Ten's For Charlotte-Douglas International Airport

 

[LickWx]

It'll beat 1990 after all is said and done. We stand at 48.3 mean temp for the month, before today. January 1990 was only 0.2 degrees warmer than we've been so far at 48.5. Almost 70 today, 50 tonight and around 60 tomorrow will easily overcome that 0.2 degree difference. Believe it or not though, our top 10 warmest January's were all pre-1990, most recent being 1974. We'll probably be right on the cusp of being in the top 10 this year.

Climate Top Ten's For Charlotte-Douglas International Airport

Yep. We are due a warm jan. We are so close at RDU to having a jan average high of 60 alas will miss it . Meanwhile there are like 3 or 4 years all 1950 and earlier that had a jan average 60

 

[SD]