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Pattern Jammin January 2023

CaryWx said:
Normal (or average actually) temps are determined by an average of the past 3 decades of 10yr data sets. Currently using this span of time 1991-2020.

Think I have that correct but others here can confirm.
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I mean maybe it’s recency bias but I don’t remember a winter in the last 10 where we spent an equal amount of time BN and AN. I am looking forward to the recalibration in 10 years when it doesn’t always have to look so orange and red.


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ATLwxfan said:
I mean maybe it’s recency bias but I don’t remember a winter in the last 10 where we spent an equal amount of time BN and AN. I am looking forward to the recalibration in 10 years when it doesn’t always have to look so orange and red.


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We just had a recalibration and dropped the colder 80s and we still spend most time above average. bUt GlObAl WaRmInG aInT rEaL

And btw that last part isn't at anyone on this board. It's the non weather folk saying that on Twitter and FB when we set one cold record here and there but constantly smash heat records that get annoying
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
We just had a recalibration and dropped the colder 80s and we still spend most time above average. bUt GlObAl WaRmInG aInT rEaL

And btw that last part isn't at anyone on this board. It's the non weather folk saying that on Twitter and FB when we set one cold record here and there but constantly smash heat records that get annoying
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I really wish we did unsmoothed averages that encompassed the sites life cycle and not a 30 year subset smoothed to make it pretty. Then you just update the averages as each day goes by. I mean why not just use a 30 year period for records as well and just ignore what happened previously. This stuff just irks me
 
SD said:
I really wish we did unsmoothed averages that encompassed the sites life cycle and not a 30 year subset smoothed to make it pretty. Then you just update the averages as each day goes by. I mean why not just use a 30 year period for records as well and just ignore what happened previously. This stuff just irks me
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That would be a great way to do it I agree. Snowfall as well all the way back as far as records go. It would no doubt still show a rise in temps and decline in snow. Brad Panovich shares the all time snow average vs 30 year average several times a year. All time is 5.8 and 30 year is 3.6. But I will say the last 30 years have probably made the warming and decreased snowfall look worse than it really is because we've dropped the 60s, 70s and 80s which seemed to be abnormally colder and snowier compared to the previous decades, all back to back.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That would be a great way to do it I agree. Snowfall as well all the way back as far as records go. It would no doubt still show a rise in temps and decline in snow. Brad Panovich shares the all time snow average vs 30 year average several times a year. All time is 5.8 and 30 year is 3.6. But I will say the last 30 years have probably made the warming and decreased snowfall look worse than it really is because we've dropped the 60s, 70s and 80s which seemed to be abnormally colder and snowier compared to the previous decades, all back to back.
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Indeed 30yrNormal_Temp_1901-2000 (1).png
 
Chandler said:
Beautiful day ahead on Sunday!! View attachment 130679View attachment 130680
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RAH now going that way as well.

High temperatures Saturday are expected to be seasonable, with highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with lows Sunday morning in the 30s.
High temps on Sunday will be difficult, with the expected in-situ
CAD airmass developing and resultant evaporative cooling effects on
temperatures. It`s possible the Triad may remain stuck in the mid to
upper 30s all day, with temps near 40 across the Triangle. Somewhere
across central NC (eastern/southeastern portion of the area likely),
expect a fairly tight temperature gradient, with a possible 20-25
degree temperature difference over a short distance. For now will go
with highs of around 40 across the northwest Piedmont to around 60
across the far east/southeast. Low are expected to be in the upper
30s to mid 40s Sunday night.
 
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