Not ideal 
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Looks like we’re going to get some high pressure in the mix by months end. The moisture has been there so not really worried about that. My main concern is keeping that Atlantic ridge beat back far enough off shore.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Honestly we get a lot of our storms in patterns where we get a cold shot, storm, quick warm up when compared to getting storms and a big freeze afterwards. Wouldn’t surprise me to sneak an event in before we torch
Don’t think anyone should have been expecting a long lasting pattern change of winter possibilities heading into February but we do get a solid 5-7 days of potential to get winter weather after these first two cutters. Then we probably will have to wait until middle to late February for an actual good pattern to set up again
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pattern isn’t great for sure. Went from crap/blowtorch to slightly less crappy overall as we enter February.
There’s still an outside chance imho that the -NAO grows more than forecast and tries to couple with the stratosphere. Even if that occurs, I don’t think it translates to a snowy/cold pattern, but would beat down the torch look we’ve been telegraphing for the last several weeks (which is the usual for La Niña winters) & shorten the amount of time we’re in said pattern. Something to still be hopeful for atm (although that scenario is unlikely)
I still think the Aleutian ridge flips to a trough ~Feb 20th or so & we see the +PNA make a return late in February
As somebody said yesterday, PAIN:
12 NAM for midday on Sunday:
12 NAM for midday on Sunday:
12z RDPS for the same day/time. Big differences for the central/eastern NC/SC folks:
In third setup I'd learn toward the cold guidance along and W of US1
packfan98
Moderator
I don't hate this -
GFS trying to throw us a bone next weekend with a strong clipper, late bloomer off the coast....
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
on one hand this is plausible and generally a look that we've scored with before. on the other hand this winter the second we've flirted with something around this time range, things trend in an objectively negative direction. so good luck.
You know even in the crappiest years we always seem to get something. So this is actually believable (to me).
Cary_Snow95
Member
January 17, 2018 was a similar scenario that greatly over performed. I believe it cutoff and went negative over us
I'd be excited if I lived in Iowa. You know, the NW trend and all
Yep. Sometimes we can score big with these types of systems.
I would love to see/chase snow on NC-12:
Lot of energy flying around after that second system with our cold air firmly in place. Could certainly see a decent clipper type event but I could also see cold and dry as well. Maybe an overrunning event as the cold heads out and the SER flexes. Again short period were working with to score but not impossible.
yeah no doubt that system absolutely rocked. absolute banger storm for the "hi res models pick up qpf better" crowd. it fooled a lot of old school mets that swore by ensembles. once the qpf got sorted out and everyone realized the thermals were fine for Raleigh....
don't know if i see a ton of parallels quite yet
olhausen
Member
This snow would fall from Thursday through Saturday night next week from a series of clippers.
There’s a couple rounds but the majority of snow shown would fall next Saturday.
Not the greatest pattern but I’ll take it over what we’ve been dealing with the last 2 weeks.
There’s a couple rounds but the majority of snow shown would fall next Saturday.
Not the greatest pattern but I’ll take it over what we’ve been dealing with the last 2 weeks.