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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Record Digital snowfall run for packfan98 from 2 separate storms totaling 33 inches in the ole back yard on the 6z GFS.

Euro dumps half a foot from an inland I-95 coastal late next Tues into Wed in the Mountains. East TN and Mtns might have some bonafide excitement from a synoptic event, with upslope on top as it exits.
 
NCSNOW said:
Record Digital snowfall run for packfan98 from 2 separate storms totaling 33 inches in the ole back yard on the 6z GFS.

Euro dumps half a foot from an inland I-95 coastal late next Tues into Wed. East TN and Mtns might have some bonnafide excitement from a synoptic event, with upslope on top as it exits.
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Hopefully more good trends today. I didn’t see much individual support from the 0z GEFS or for the first system on the 6z. Haven’t looked at the upper level means yet to compare the development of the pattern.

Digital snow will keep me happy for a while though. This place sucks when there’s no hope in the heart of winter.
 
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packfan98 said:
Hopefully more good trends today. I didn’t see much individual support from the 0z GEFS or for the first system on the 6z. Haven’t looked at the upper level means yet to compare the development pattern yet.
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I do see the SE Ridge at play to an extent, and it looks like on just glancing at everything it creates a pattern conducive to producing a lot of seaboard runners. Trick is are they up through the piedmont regions, coastal Plains, or coastline. You'll hear the MA crew and especially NE crew, not curse the SE ridge like we do, because it helps produce these Nor'easter type tracks.
 
NCSNOW said:
I do see the SE Ridge at play to an extent, and it looks like on just glancing at everything it creates a pattern conducive to producing a lot of seaboard runners. Trick is are they up through the piedmont regions, coastal Plains, or coastline. You'll hear the MA crew and especially NE crew, not curse the SE ridge like we do, because it helps produce these Nor'easter type tracks.
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I definitely see the potential for some sloppy CAD storms. The precip looks to be there for sure. Now we have to get some cold air in place for CAD, and then we turn to the storm track to see who might actually get some snow.
 
tennessee storm said:
Apps runners look be in play also
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Definitely the most likely track for much of the next couple of weeks. That could still produce in CAD regions east of the mountains. Then there appears to be a slightly more southern track (potentially a Miller A) that could produce for more of the SE.

So I’d say the best potential regions are on the NW fringe from LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, and the CAD region east of the mountains. Now we watch and wait.
 
gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Lets hope that happens
 
With the track of that low on or just off the coast there could be a incerdbly tight gradient that will change precip types drastcially in jut 25-30 mile increments. Still too early to worry about exact track but the cold air will be marginal and will tend to favor the usual climo spots if it continues what the EPS is trying to paint for the SE. Either way, the NE is gonna get creamed IMO
 
rburrel2 said:
00z Euro is not far off for some wintry mix in CAD regions of NC at hr 156. Icon looks similar. View attachment 130519
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Yep. I also liked the last frame (day 10). The 6z GFS was a great fantasy run but that's all it is right now is fantasy. The overall pattern, and maybe the general pattern setup, is the most important focal point for us right now.

0z euro day 10:
1673961362835.png
 
The Biggest thing I've noticed is the increased -NAO and stronger 50/50 Low. We're going to trend right into a winter storm, specifically east of the mountains if we're not careful. Hopefully we can continue that trend and building in the Aleutian Low and pump some heights out west to go with the nice looking Atlantic.
 
iGRXY said:
The Biggest thing I've noticed is the increased -NAO and stronger 50/50 Low. We're going to trend right into a winter storm, specifically east of the mountains if we're not careful. Hopefully we can continue that trend and building in the Aleutian Low and pump some heights out west to go with the nice looking Atlantic.
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Western SE probably has a similar, even better shot then us because their closer to the mean colder trough axis then us back east, specifically AR/MS/NAL/TN
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Western SE probably has a similar, even better shot then us because their closer to the mean colder trough axis then us back east, specifically AR/MS/NAL/TN
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That seems to have been the rule for the last three years of la nina. Memphis has been the place to be (for the south).
 
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