Is it about to bomb out and then slide into the 50/50 position?
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
I didn't see this post when I posted the same thing but that rex developing from AK with to HI probably gets me more excited than it should
packfan98
Moderator
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really want to see if the 12z EPS holds serve or goes to the 12z operational run there. Phew boy, that would have severe weather outbreak written all over it next week.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can already tell the 12z EPS is going to trend towards today's operational run in the extended range & eject the upper low out of the SW US sooner.
We’re tip toeing a very fine line here.. it’s nice to see things going our way but a flex of SER could happen at the drop of a dime along with energy dumping west.. gotta just stay the course
Initial looks to the EPS looks like it’s following it’s operational..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z EPS is going bonkers w/ the -NAO
Pretty doable look here.
Pretty doable look here.
Cold TPV stuck under a growing sign of -NAO …
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just about every bounce has gone in favor of a something potentially showing up near month's end (esp a CAD event).
Cautiously optimistic. Wish I had been paying more attention to the short-term, I think I get too far-sighted on the long range sometimes
Cautiously optimistic. Wish I had been paying more attention to the short-term, I think I get too far-sighted on the long range sometimes
iGRXY
Member
This is why trying to cancel winter in the middle of January is foolish. These models are terribly variant. In fact the only sure thing I know after the last 3-4 years is that I know these models are going to flip around repeatedly and that it's never as good or bad as it appears. Things have trended better in the extended and that's all you can hope for. Now at a minimum I think we've trended well enough that we are going to get a lot of CAD type of days to fight off any torch. And the pieces for a potential winter storm are on the table which is all you can ask for. Some areas are better situated than others in the juncture. Western areas (TX,LA, Ark, West Tennessee, West Mississippi) and CAD friendly areas of VA, NC, SC, and NEGA have the most ways to score something frozen, but the players are there for everyone on the board to hit.
We'll forgive you for the coming February torch if we all get blasted 01/31 and an encore 03/01.
Unfortunately that Atlantic ridge tends to slide west as we get closer. I mean it’s not nothing though.
Which is the -NAO that papa @Rain Cold hates? East or west based?
iGRXY
Member
This is a very CAD/overrunning type of pattern here. Now this is one way to score some nice front end snow that ends as ICE. almost a repeat of January 22 with a nice 8 hour snow that finished with Sleet/ZR in the western Carolinas.
Hopefully a start to some workable changes as we near the end of the month.
You don't want it too west based
Who has the extended CFS?