I would argue it’s very close. Only difference is the northern piece of energy holds into some strength and takes primary .. GFS likes to do this sometimes but it is another scenario that’s possible. If the southern takes over though it’s close
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
I would much rather have ICON then GFS in the boat. I know that’s wild to say but…
ICON actually changes me over to snow on Sunday Evening. It's *this* close for the border counties Roxboro and west, too.
Nothing like the GFS OP going from the far eastern tip of LI to Toledo in one run.
Wyd gfs
Out there in la-la land, but I don't hate this look.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Gets swallowed by energy coming out of the PAC NWAnd she cuts from New Orleans up to Louisville
Is this a warm look
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Much like I did around this time in December (linked below), here's my general sentiment on the rest of meteorological winter.
Again, looking at the big, general picture, don't worry about any details this far out. Only concerned about the planetary-continental scale wave pattern evolution & tropical-extratropical subseasonal coupling processes, not individual storms, not rain/snow p-type maps, etc.
From a tropical forcing perspective & using weekly model forecasts + Nina climatology & analogs as a basic guide line (not actual forecast), this is what things generally look like to me. Tropical forcing will be very dominant over the next several weeks as the MJO &/or Kelvin Waves in the E Hem superposes onto La Nina (gets an assist from the SSWE in the form of an enhanced Brewer Dobson Circulation & we begin to approach the annual peak in MJO amplitude in Feb-Mar).
The big -EAMT event we saw this past week set this pattern evolution into motion and the Pacific jet retraction will get handed off & further reinforced by the MJO as we enter February, leading to a prolonged period of -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the first half-2/3rds of February.
Thus, I think we'll probably go from this central-western weighted trough & southern Canada vortex late month w/ occasional bouts of cold + an outside chance of a CAD event, to a more traditional -PNA in the first week of February that probably shuts down any real chance we have wintry weather, unless we see the 50-50 low go completely crazy like a few EPS & GEFS runs have hinted at.
Thereafter, as we get into the 2nd week of February, I suspect the SE US ridge will actually amplify + flex up the East Coast as the -PNA retreats further into western Canada, yielding a potentially very/unusually mild pattern for much of the E US (not just the SE US this time). I think this pattern will try to persist into at least the 3rd week of February (Feb 14-21), even as the MJO (or whatever comes of subseasonal tropical forcing) enters the West Pacific but by then, I believe we'll see the large-scale puzzle pieces begin to start shuffle around, eventually yielding a potential +EAMT &/or MJO-induced Pacific jet extension sometime around Feb 20th or so.
Eventually, I think that coupled with rapidly shortening jet wavelengths will cause a lot of reshuffling of the circulation pattern over the N Pacific + N America, allowing us to shake off this -PNA/SE ridge pattern sometime around the last week of February & transition to a favorable look for cold/snow right at the tail end of February &/or early March, a time of the winter where we tend to see the most big dog winter storms per capita.
Given that we're not only in a La Nina but would be closing in on a time of the year where the MJO tends to be the most amplified (& therefore slow), plus potential interaction with a SSWE &/or ENSO, there's a risk this overall timeline on the back end of February gets pushed back some closer to early March, but not favoring that scenario for now.
I think these RMM regression maps from Paul Roundy get the general idea generally right here.
Late January: (Very) marginal pattern for cold/snow w/ mean trough centered to our west w/ trough south of Greenland. Slight chance of a CAD event.
Early-mid February: Transition to a more canonical La Nina -PNA/SE ridge pattern w/ the SE ridge flexing up the East Coast, & getting warmer (anomaly wise) as time progresses during this period.
Late February: +EAMT &/or MJO-induced jet extension flips the Pacific pattern, pattern reshuffles over N America in response to that & seasonal changes to the jet stream. Favorable pattern for cold/snow tries to return during the last week of Feb or so.
Early March: A favorable pattern for cold/snow seems most likely to return during this time period. Fighting against increasingly unfavorable climo as early March turns into mid-March. Suspect after our "false spring" in early-mid February, actual spring may get put on hold for a bit this year once we flip the calendar to March.
https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
Here are the JMA MJO composite OLRa & VP200a for each MJO as a rough reference guide to compare w/ against the extended GEFS above.
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/composite.html
Again, looking at the big, general picture, don't worry about any details this far out. Only concerned about the planetary-continental scale wave pattern evolution & tropical-extratropical subseasonal coupling processes, not individual storms, not rain/snow p-type maps, etc.
From a tropical forcing perspective & using weekly model forecasts + Nina climatology & analogs as a basic guide line (not actual forecast), this is what things generally look like to me. Tropical forcing will be very dominant over the next several weeks as the MJO &/or Kelvin Waves in the E Hem superposes onto La Nina (gets an assist from the SSWE in the form of an enhanced Brewer Dobson Circulation & we begin to approach the annual peak in MJO amplitude in Feb-Mar).
The big -EAMT event we saw this past week set this pattern evolution into motion and the Pacific jet retraction will get handed off & further reinforced by the MJO as we enter February, leading to a prolonged period of -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the first half-2/3rds of February.
Thus, I think we'll probably go from this central-western weighted trough & southern Canada vortex late month w/ occasional bouts of cold + an outside chance of a CAD event, to a more traditional -PNA in the first week of February that probably shuts down any real chance we have wintry weather, unless we see the 50-50 low go completely crazy like a few EPS & GEFS runs have hinted at.
Thereafter, as we get into the 2nd week of February, I suspect the SE US ridge will actually amplify + flex up the East Coast as the -PNA retreats further into western Canada, yielding a potentially very/unusually mild pattern for much of the E US (not just the SE US this time). I think this pattern will try to persist into at least the 3rd week of February (Feb 14-21), even as the MJO (or whatever comes of subseasonal tropical forcing) enters the West Pacific but by then, I believe we'll see the large-scale puzzle pieces begin to start shuffle around, eventually yielding a potential +EAMT &/or MJO-induced Pacific jet extension sometime around Feb 20th or so.
Eventually, I think that coupled with rapidly shortening jet wavelengths will cause a lot of reshuffling of the circulation pattern over the N Pacific + N America, allowing us to shake off this -PNA/SE ridge pattern sometime around the last week of February & transition to a favorable look for cold/snow right at the tail end of February &/or early March, a time of the winter where we tend to see the most big dog winter storms per capita.
Given that we're not only in a La Nina but would be closing in on a time of the year where the MJO tends to be the most amplified (& therefore slow), plus potential interaction with a SSWE &/or ENSO, there's a risk this overall timeline on the back end of February gets pushed back some closer to early March, but not favoring that scenario for now.
I think these RMM regression maps from Paul Roundy get the general idea generally right here.
Late January: (Very) marginal pattern for cold/snow w/ mean trough centered to our west w/ trough south of Greenland. Slight chance of a CAD event.
Early-mid February: Transition to a more canonical La Nina -PNA/SE ridge pattern w/ the SE ridge flexing up the East Coast, & getting warmer (anomaly wise) as time progresses during this period.
Late February: +EAMT &/or MJO-induced jet extension flips the Pacific pattern, pattern reshuffles over N America in response to that & seasonal changes to the jet stream. Favorable pattern for cold/snow tries to return during the last week of Feb or so.
Early March: A favorable pattern for cold/snow seems most likely to return during this time period. Fighting against increasingly unfavorable climo as early March turns into mid-March. Suspect after our "false spring" in early-mid February, actual spring may get put on hold for a bit this year once we flip the calendar to March.
https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
Here are the JMA MJO composite OLRa & VP200a for each MJO as a rough reference guide to compare w/ against the extended GEFS above.
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/composite.html
I mean, how do they even run an ensemble suite off of this thing? Serious question actually.
rburrel2
Member
12z cmc is set up nicely at 240hrs too, and somewhat similar look to the gfs. 10-15 day timeframe definitely has potential to produce.
tennessee storm
Member
Cmc 240 bout as bad or worse than gfs around 200 hours out lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don’t think the CMC is doing a good job handling the upper trough in my neck of the woods in the medium range
These NPAC ridge patterns are delicate. More amplified ridge this gefs run. Typically with these ridges they get more amped in time and wavelengths shorten 
rburrel2
Member
We could use some SE ridging here to increase winter storm chances.
Seriously though if we wind up connecting the blocks across Canada a SE ridge might be a key ingredient needed for us to score.
Seriously though if we wind up connecting the blocks across Canada a SE ridge might be a key ingredient needed for us to score.
CMCE has the bad looking pacific ridge but has enough blocking on top and it keeps a TPV tucked more towards us. Some pretty big run to run changes as well. But it’s weird seeing that type of NPAC ridge and us being cold, normally this flatter NPAC ridge look is associated with a warmer eastern US 
