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Pattern Jammin January 2023

SD said:
2014 evolution

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Getting a more poleward N Pac ridge is critical for this very reason (not just for cold in the short term). Without a poleward NP ridge, the ridge doesn’t retrograde as quickly (or much at all) into Siberia because the Pacific Jet can’t undercut it & allow the ridge to break over the top + get replaced by Aleutian trough underneath to pump the +PNA

The other big, really key difference between this year and 2014 was the appearance of West Pac MJO in mid Feb. That further allowed the Pacific jet to undercut the already poleward-displaced blocking ridge & more easily generate an Aleutian Low.

A Feb 2014-style scenario isn’t totally crazy to me. However….

It really feels like this year is going to be at least a week or so behind that kind of scenario (maybe more?), w/ a more prolonged period of warmth in the front half of the month. :/

The good news is this canonical SE ridge pattern probably won’t last forever in the cold season, because the wavelengths start to collapse later in Feb into Mar (extratropics respond differently to the same forcing at different times of the year). I think we see some sort of legit +EAMT &/or Pacific jet extension around Feb 20 give or take, which eventually eats away at the canonical Feb Nina SE ridge pattern


DFED9256-8D07-47BA-8827-89309135D826.gif
 
Curious to see today’s Euro weeklies. Should give us a good first look at what late Feb might look like and how we get out of this upcoming warm pattern. I also am intrigued how this SSWE or weak vortex event (< 5ms-1 at 60N/10 hPa) will look, because that could impact things from late Feb onward. Just read a paper on this earlier this morning: the ECMWF S2S model also has a strong vortex bias of about 5ms-1 on average, because it can’t properly resolve gravity wave drag in the middle-upper stratosphere.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Getting a more poleward N Pac ridge is critical for this very reason (not just for cold in the short term). Without a poleward NP ridge, the ridge doesn’t retrograde as quickly (or much at all) into Siberia because the Pacific Jet can’t undercut it & allow the ridge to break over the top + get replaced by Aleutian trough underneath to pump the +PNA

The other big, really key difference between this year and 2014 was the appearance of West Pac MJO in mid Feb. That further allowed the Pacific jet to undercut the already poleward-displaced blocking ridge & more easily generate an Aleutian Low.

A Feb 2014-style scenario isn’t totally crazy to me. However….

It really feels like this year is going to be at least a week or so behind that kind of scenario (maybe more?), w/ a more prolonged period of warmth in the front half of the month. :/

The good news is this canonical SE ridge pattern probably won’t last forever in the cold season, because the wavelengths start to collapse later in Feb into Mar (extratropics respond differently to the same forcing at different times of the year). I think we see some sort of legit +EAMT &/or Pacific jet extension around Feb 20 give or take, which eventually eats away at the canonical Feb Nina SE ridge pattern


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Where did you get the 2014 mjo plot I looked for 30 minutes this morning and couldn't find it.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is great for building snow pack up north for more CAD cold air potential
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The snow pack + deep cold air mass are definitely going for any would-be end of Jan CAD potential.

Just need the 50-50 low to look more like the 0z GEFS from last night to have a real chance & get one of these troughs to eject from the Rockies at the right time. Atlantic Canada vortex, east-based -NAO, -PNA, w/ an Aleutian ridge is a classic CAD setup.
North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_56.png
 
SD said:
I'd personally just like to get out of this wave timing cycle we are in. If it's going to be 70 in January that's fine but give it to me on Friday Saturday Sunday not Tuesday Wednesday Thursday with the weekend being around 50 with NW winds of 100
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It's going to rain this weekend. Cold rain.
 
SD said:
I'd personally just like to get out of this wave timing cycle we are in. If it's going to be 70 in January that's fine but give it to me on Friday Saturday Sunday not Tuesday Wednesday Thursday with the weekend being around 50 with NW winds of 100
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We seem to have a quasi-regular 35 ish day (+/- 5 days) cycle to periods of cold/warm this year (likely MJO related to a large extent).
 
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