Pattern Jammin January 2023

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gotta love a little volatility for the fun of it

 

[Webberweather53]

I know some folks want me to throw them a bone here.

The only thing I could realistically happening is through a stroke of synoptic luck in a sea of warmth, we sneak a CAD event over the Carolinas + VA in/near the end of the month or very beginning of February if the Atlantic Canada trough is as strong as the EPS suggests it will be.

There’s a very fine line between CAD and severe weather with this look tho.

For now, I’d still place my bets on something happening late in February or March over this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I know some folks want me to throw them a bone here.

The only thing I could realistically happening is through a stroke of synoptic luck in a sea of warmth, we sneak a CAD event over the Carolinas + VA in/near the end of the month or very beginning of February if the Atlantic Canada trough is as strong as the EPS suggests it will be.

There’s a very fine line between CAD and severe weather with this look tho

View attachment 130315

Atlantic Canada low and of course the -PNA is a noticeable feature with some of more nastier severe weather events across the SE. but Most noticeable thing here is the more westerly flow aloft over the SE here, I know it’s Dampened mean, but we’ve seen these sort of patterns in the past produce some nasty severe weather setups, these flatter/flat wave setups. Cookeville TN and Beauregard AL come to mind

 

[Webberweather53]

Atlantic Canada low and of course the -PNA is a noticeable feature with some of more nastier severe weather events across the SE. but Most noticeable thing here is the more westerly flow aloft over the SE here, I know it’s Dampened mean, but we’ve seen these sort of patterns in the past produce some nasty severe weather setups, these flatter/flat wave setups. Cookeville TN and Beauregard AL come to mind

Agreed, that would be a better bet in this sort of look. I can actually recall in doing the ice storm climatology (still in progres), seeing few cases where severe weather occurred almost simultaneously in conjunction with ice in NC. Depending on what part of the state you were in, you were getting thunderstorms or ice

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks like best case scenario that west Atlantic ridge is going to be close by for quite a while and like Fro alluded to earlier that will favor amplification and a lot of inland solutions. However sometimes if the stars align and we can keep that ridge far enough east we can reel a big dog in for somebody on this board. It’s early, boys.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

First guess: Greats lakes cutters galore. Dream pattern for @Tarheel1 . Probably a scenario where we cut cut cut for a while followed by a step down mid latitude cold shot that gets the mid Atlantic and WNC mountains to Fancy Gap back in the game.

 

[Chazwin]

Agreed, that would be a better bet in this sort of look. I can actually recall in doing the ice storm climatology (still in progres), seeing few cases where severe weather occurred almost simultaneously in conjunction with ice in NC. Depending on what part of the state you were in, you were getting thunderstorms or ice

I can remember in early January 1995, there was an Ice Storm in the NC Piedmont/Foothills and SC Upstate from a system that also produced major severe weather for the eastern Carolinas… I seem to remember there was a tornado near Ft Bragg

 

[JHS]

I can remember in early January 1995, there was an Ice Storm in the NC Piedmont/Foothills and SC Upstate from a system that also produced major severe weather for the eastern Carolinas… I seem to remember there was a tornado near Ft Bragg

I think eastern NC may have had some severe weather in January 1999 too, while we had a major ice event in the CAD regions.

 

[griteater]

Yeah the progression of the ECWMFer and the GEPS (and you could argue the GEFS to a degree) isn't in your corner if you're banking on a Nina SE ridge and warm eastern US to cancel the next 6 weeks of winter. Is it right? Hard to tell. But one thing we do know for sure is that seasonal and subseasonal forecasts are fraught with risk and are quite often not as cut and dry as they seem (see the surprise super-Nino response of the past couple of weeks or virtually any 6 week-lead forecast over the last several years). It would be nice if were as simple as looking at MT events, SSWEs, MJO progression, etc.

Anyway, I'd be nervous throwing winter away for the next 6 weeks.

View attachment 130304

View attachment 130305

This imminent Pac Jet extension wants to foster the development of ridging going up along and just off the W North American coastline in the Jan 19-25 timeframe. May end up being a big tease, but not out of the question to see a winter storm threat show up in the Jan 24-30 period

Think it’s going to take a Flutie to Phelan Hail Mary to see a winter storm threat in the Feb 1-15 timeframe

 

[J1C1111]

Not sure what NC was like in 14-15 but we waited weeks while those NW of us got storm after storm. Finally at the end of February I got 5 or so inches when one finally came south enough. I’ll take a ridge nearby knowing there is cold to the west of me.

Same here in NC. Got all our winter in 14-15 from February 16-26th all in a 10 day window. 2 storms in 10 days nothing before or after that winter.

 

[Chazwin]

I think eastern NC may have had some severe weather in January 1999 too, while we had a major ice event in the CAD regions.

Looking back I think your right. I do remember that with that storm, the temperature gradient across the Carolinas was very impressive… mid to upper 20s in CAD areas to mid to upper 70s along the SC coast.

 

[Webberweather53]

Right on cue, as soon as the calendar flips to February, we see the canonical La Nina SE ridge/-PNA really take hold on today's extended GEFS ensemble mean.

Given the depth of cold air to our NW, we might have one very slim chance of a CAD event near the end of January, but that's probably about it until at least late February.

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

Right on cue, as soon as the calendar flips to February, we see the canonical La Nina SE ridge/-PNA really take hold on today's extended GEFS ensemble mean.

Given the depth of cold air to our NW, we might have one very slim chance of a CAD event near the end of January, but that's probably about it until at least late February.


View attachment 130323

Are the enso tendency influences not in some way programmed into long range models? isn't it a little bit suspect that it is like clock work?

 

[Webberweather53]

Are the enso tendency influences not in some way incorporated into long range models? isn't it a little bit suspect that it is like clock work?

It often is like clock work in so many years (maybe not exactly Feb 1, plus or minus a week or two, but it's a very prominent feature). Nearly 75% of La Ninas have above average temps in the SE US during February. It's really just a matter of time in most instances. Even that great winter of 2017-18 burned us in February.

 

[TheBatman]

Right on cue, as soon as the calendar flips to February, we see the canonical La Nina SE ridge/-PNA really take hold on today's extended GEFS ensemble mean.

Given the depth of cold air to our NW, we might have one very slim chance of a CAD event near the end of January, but that's probably about it until at least late February.


View attachment 130323

Glad I don’t put any stock on long range models.

 

[Webberweather53]

It doesn't matter to me that this is "x" number of hours out, it honestly looks about right in the grand scheme of things.


We're really shooting ourselves in the foot by reinforcing + amplifying the canonical La Nina tropical forcing pattern in February by sticking subseasonal forcing right back into the Eastern Hemisphere early-mid month (whether that's MJO or not doesn't really matter). Seen this occur more than a few times in tracking these kinds of patterns, that rarely (if ever) goes over well.

 

[Webberweather53]

Glad I don’t put any stock on long range models.

We're honestly pretty screwed in the grand scheme of things once February comes rolling around.

Sorry, that's the just the facts & @Myfrotho704_ + @griteater have echoed this sentiment in here today.

 

[J1C1111]

We're honestly pretty screwed in the grand scheme of things once February comes rolling around.

Sorry, that's the just the facts & @Myfrotho704_ + @griteater have echoed this sentiment in here today.

So what your saying is, if I live in southwest NC once February rolls around I can expect endless days of 60s 70s and possibly 80s with no end in sight with no chance of a possible winter storm or even a borderline cold rain winter storm chance. Is that what your saying. It sounds like it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So what your saying is, if I live in southwest NC once February rolls around I can expect endless days of 60s 70s and possibly 80s with no end in sight with no chance of a possible winter storm or even a borderline cold rain winter storm chance. Is that what your saying. It sounds like it.

More like lots of highs of 50s 60s and 70s with a few colder days where we end up with a low around Atlantic Canada or colder air spills east quickly behind systems rounding the ridge, cold rain is possible if we get a damming setup where a SE Canada vortex ends up winding up

 

[Somosdel]

More like lots of highs of 50s 60s and 70s with a few colder days where we end up with a low around Atlantic Canada or colder air spills east quickly behind systems rounding the ridge, cold rain is possible if we get a damming setup where a SE Canada vortex ends up winding up

It would be amazing if we could forecast this well a month and more away. It just isn’t true. We saw last winter long range guidance flip by the time those periods verified. Long way to go folks. Everyone save these images so we can repost when charlotte keeps its streak alive! Cheers!!