No one at my office believed me until I showed them the pictures. It thinned out really quick when you went south. Even we turned to rain and sleet for an hour or two.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Flotown
Member
euro looks interseting JS
Day ten operational caveats fully acknowledged...do I see cross-polar flow that seems poised to drop deep into the CONUS from the Rockies through all or much of the east?
JHS
Member
We also had this in 1989, followed by a freeze at GSP on May 8
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here’s the day 8-10 super ensemble clusters from the WPC. Most of these suck if you’re hoping for a big snow. Need a taller ridge near and north of Alaska to have a sniff of the really cold air off to the NW
rburrel2
Member
Seems like there's definitely two camps right now for what happens out west around 144-168hrs out. CMC/GFS and their ensembles really want to drop everything into the Southwest.
Ukmet/Euro/ICON all keep everything progressing east and avoids the huge cutoff scenario in the Southwest.
I think our odds of a cold dump and winter weather chances post day 8-10 are better if the Europe models win out.
Ukmet/Euro/ICON all keep everything progressing east and avoids the huge cutoff scenario in the Southwest.
I think our odds of a cold dump and winter weather chances post day 8-10 are better if the Europe models win out.
Most definitely. While either solution will likely have little effect on February as a whole, the Euro and Icon long range gives us a decent chance of scoring before the -PNA unanimously shown on the long-range EPS, GEFS, and EPS.
I for one punt winter on February 20th. Yes, I know big storms can and do occur well into March in these parts. I just hate the lack of staying power in late winter-early spring.
Oh interesting. Still have to factor in the cold bias the model has but it’s an ensemble of a model and I’ll share it.
Something else I was looking at about that winter since you mentioned it is just how warm it was for a good 3 week stretch late January to mid February. There were a number of days that reached well into the 70s and a several days in the 80s. In fact, CLT had a high of 80 on 2/16/89, and then the next evening of the 17th was dealing with a major sleet/ice storm that would change to snow the following day.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Yep, I saw that surge across the pole as well. Wish we could get day 10 lucky!Day ten operational caveats fully acknowledged...do I see cross-polar flow that seems poised to drop deep into the CONUS from the Rockies through all or much of the east?
JLL1973
Member
Not me . I’m not punting a month of winter I’m old enough to know that things can change in a hurry. Punting a month of winter is just ludicrous.
Those looks showing up on ensembles is sketchy. The pattern coming up looks heavy on amplification and is the complete opposite of what we have seen, in the past, typically you shorten wavelengths and “tuck” the pattern in as you get closer, the low backing up into Okhotsk and higher heights over the Aleutian Islands taking over is well known to correlate to a ridge over us. Poleward ridge north of AK (and the mean ridge axis north of AK especially cutoff) is what we need to be rooting for. As rain cold always says, the Aleutian ridge, typically is a disaster for the SE. ensembles will shorten wavelengths over time as they figure out the more realistic solution (Aleutian ridge = never good for us)
Another thing we need to root for, but it’s unlikely right now, is the +SCAND to try to retrograde into a -NAO, and west based at that, not a big signal for that right now. Looking at the pattern with my eyes, you always have to watch out for northern stream energy amplifying around Atlantic Canada with these patterns which can bring in some opportunity, but other the that, it’s not a good pattern at all, there’s not much hope with that NPAC ridge position. It screwed us in December with the big -NAO event, and it will do it again if it sets up like that
Another thing we need to root for, but it’s unlikely right now, is the +SCAND to try to retrograde into a -NAO, and west based at that, not a big signal for that right now. Looking at the pattern with my eyes, you always have to watch out for northern stream energy amplifying around Atlantic Canada with these patterns which can bring in some opportunity, but other the that, it’s not a good pattern at all, there’s not much hope with that NPAC ridge position. It screwed us in December with the big -NAO event, and it will do it again if it sets up like that
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That’s a pretty solid-strong MJO pulse over the Indian Ocean/maritime continent and it just amplifies as it crawls east. The La Niña in place, is favorable and notorious for keeping this type of forcing in place, when it is realized. This is practically one of the worse looks for winter storms across NC tropical forcing wise specifically (snow). Ice oth may be different. IO/MC forcing retracts the pacific jet. I’d feel a little better about the western/northwestern SE in this sort of pattern because cold (Arctic) air has more of a shot reaching there and bleeding east time to time as cold Arctic air gets sent down from the NPAC ridge, for CAD regions it will be harder because the NE ain’t gonna see any appreciable snow for that sort of pattern, meaning modified CAD setups unless we get a super cold airmass on top the great lakes/SE cnada
that’s a strong -EAMT event happening right now as well (redline), as you can see the last several weeks it’s been mostly positive which has led to the extended pacific jet, but now it’s taken a nosedive, which means full on, and fast retraction, which leads to little to no favorability in between because everything right now (tropics forcing, dropping AAM, and strong -EAMT) all favor retraction, pacific jet is going home back towards the western pacific. And it’s just not a good thing for us in the SE. but there’s the little things that we can hope for if your looking for Hope mentioned above (I’m not I’m enjoying other things in life right now lol)
that’s a strong -EAMT event happening right now as well (redline), as you can see the last several weeks it’s been mostly positive which has led to the extended pacific jet, but now it’s taken a nosedive, which means full on, and fast retraction, which leads to little to no favorability in between because everything right now (tropics forcing, dropping AAM, and strong -EAMT) all favor retraction, pacific jet is going home back towards the western pacific. And it’s just not a good thing for us in the SE. but there’s the little things that we can hope for if your looking for Hope mentioned above (I’m not I’m enjoying other things in life right now lol)
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Yeah it's awful and any model showing cold should be taken with a grain of salt. This isn't 11-12 again pattern wise but it's just like it on terms of boredom and little hope. We haven't even sniffed a credible threat yet. It's one thing not to have snow yet, but to not even have a threat at all to track yet and no hope of one anytime soon it seems says how bad this winter is.
Might not have threats to track but we’re certainly not going to see consistent 70s or anything crazy like that. It’ll at least be cool to cold at times with periods of 60s and 70s sometimes. We will end above average on the month almost certainly but at least it won’t feel like spring all the time in the dead of winter ??
rburrel2
Member
It’s inherently bad news to be debating 300hr pattern evolution in mid January… any way you slice it. It can only get better from here though.
Yeah the progression of the ECWMFer and the GEPS (and you could argue the GEFS to a degree) isn't in your corner if you're banking on a Nina SE ridge and warm eastern US to cancel the next 6 weeks of winter. Is it right? Hard to tell. But one thing we do know for sure is that seasonal and subseasonal forecasts are fraught with risk and are quite often not as cut and dry as they seem (see the surprise super-Nino response of the past couple of weeks or virtually any 6 week-lead forecast over the last several years). It would be nice if were as simple as looking at MT events, SSWEs, MJO progression, etc.
Anyway, I'd be nervous throwing winter away for the next 6 weeks.
LR NAM coming into view! 
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️?tennessee storm
Member
Least we will be able save money on heating bills still. Good thingMight not have threats to track but we’re certainly not going to see consistent 70s or anything crazy like that. It’ll at least be cool to cold at times with periods of 60s and 70s sometimes. We will end above average on the month almost certainly but at least it won’t feel like spring all the time in the dead of winter ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Felt like this needed to be said here in the main pattern thread
Hard to read the pattern after mid Feb, but if the SSWE is successful at cooling off Eurasia and the MJO comes out the Maritime Continent, that might get us going & re extend the Pacific jet again/get rid of the -PNA. I can see hints of that already near the end of the extended GEFS as we approach Feb 20, w/ the trough out west retrograding all the way back to Alaska and pumping the heights near the West Coast again. We’ll also have rapidly shortening wavelengths by late Feb, so we should get some different looks by then and significant reshuffling of the deck.
We’re less likely to see snow at that time of the winter, but more likely to get a big storm in late Feb-early Mar. If you think there’s gonna be a storm this winter, that’s where I’d place my bets for now.
From Webber is saying we need to start sharpening our mower blades and stocking up on sunscreen. Atleast it will warm.
Hard to read the pattern after mid Feb, but if the SSWE is successful at cooling off Eurasia and the MJO comes out the Maritime Continent, that might get us going & re extend the Pacific jet again/get rid of the -PNA. I can see hints of that already near the end of the extended GEFS as we approach Feb 20, w/ the trough out west retrograding all the way back to Alaska and pumping the heights near the West Coast again. We’ll also have rapidly shortening wavelengths by late Feb, so we should get some different looks by then and significant reshuffling of the deck.
We’re less likely to see snow at that time of the winter, but more likely to get a big storm in late Feb-early Mar. If you think there’s gonna be a storm this winter, that’s where I’d place my bets for now.