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Tropical Irma Banter

Just a few of the comments from ;PAGE ONE, of the Irma threat. Probably a lot for us to learn from early judgments.


Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting


I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.


Early signs point to a fish...but we shall see.


If this look holds true though, it will be hard for a storm to come close to the EC.


.should turn ots in time but still


Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC

Just goes to show Mother Nature doesn't always go the way we plan or want. This has been one intriguing storm to watch...and I thought Harvey was crazy...


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Just a few of the comments from ;PAGE ONE, of the Irma threat. Probably a lot for us to learn from early judgments.

Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting

I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.

Early signs point to a fish...but we shall see.

If this look holds true though, it will be hard for a storm to come close to the EC.

.should turn ots in time but still

Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC

Notice that none of these statements from the various members said definite safe recurve....only a likely safe recurve. So, these statements weren't inappropriate. In most cases when a storm forms that far east and that far north, it won't even get close to the US. That will still be the case going forward. The thing to learn from this is to never say never, which again wasn't a problem with any of these statements. Saying likely recurve based on 100+ years of history is not a mistake. Saying definite recurve would have been a mistake.
 
Notice that none of these statements from the various members said definite safe recurve....only a likely safe recurve. So, these statements weren't inappropriate. In most cases when a storm forms that far east and that far north, it won't even get close to the US. That will still be the case going forward. The thing to learn from this is to never say never, which again wasn't a problem with any of these statements. Saying likely recurve based on 100+ years of history is not a mistake. Saying definite recurve would have been a mistake.
I didn't say they were inappropriate, just how we judge things, hurricanes, winter weather, severe threats, etc..so quickly and they often end up totally different in a few days.
 
Ok, Banter. I have said this before, I don't need to defend James Spann, but I do know him personally and can tell you on oath, no one tries harder, cares more, or tries to learn from mistakes more than James Spann. He is one of the few that will come back afterwards and tell you he was wrong and why and he will try to use that in the future so as not to make the same mistake. The idea that he is stupid or making forecasts for publicity is just asinine and quite frankly wrong. He has to be on TV and radio for many stations several times a day. He has to give his best interpretation of data at that time. He can't change his mind with every model run or shift. Just look how this thing has changed back and forth over the past few days. Many of you have changed your opinion several times. The difference is, yours doesn't matter, and the general public never sees yours. Also, we are all weenies, that is why we are here. The general public doesn't know or care about 10% of what we discuss here. Anyway, keep doing what you all do and providing the great ideas and comments, especially the pros on here. Just stop the bashing of others. Woo, I feel better now. MRStorm out.
 
does anybody find it strange that every few hours the "track" of the storm makes big changes? how does anybody state ANY of the last 48 hours of model runs were the correct path?
 
bashing James Spann is supposed to be in the storm thread????????? and why so much hate for this decent man?
 
For any of you sheltering in place, my thoughts are with you. After the storm, you'll see utility crews from around the nation. These guys work 12-18 hour shifts for days on end during assessment/restoration. If you get the opportunity (and have the means), make or buy one of them a cup of coffee, or hand them a bottle of water. It's a very thankless job they do for the majority of the time. And the smallest gesture can lift their spirits.
 
Glenn Burns is going by the NWS, and the NWS only. It seems like he lets the NWS do all the work and he doesn't give a forecast from himself. He says there won't be severe winds in north Georgia. That's wrong, there will be severe winds in north Georgia. Severe winds meaning 58mph or greater.
 
Glenn Burns is going by the NWS, and the NWS only. It seems like he lets the NWS do all the work and he doesn't give a forecast from himself. He says there won't be severe winds in north Georgia. That's wrong, there will be severe winds in north Georgia. Severe winds meaning 58mph or greater.
Kinda still to early to tell. Glenn got beat up for hyping the April tornado potential. It busted here and he got flack. Guess he's scared.
 
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