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Tropical Irma Banter

Stormlover said:
Just a few of the comments from ;PAGE ONE, of the Irma threat. Probably a lot for us to learn from early judgments.


Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting


I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.


Early signs point to a fish...but we shall see.


If this look holds true though, it will be hard for a storm to come close to the EC.


.should turn ots in time but still


Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC
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Just goes to show Mother Nature doesn't always go the way we plan or want. This has been one intriguing storm to watch...and I thought Harvey was crazy...


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Stormlover said:
Just a few of the comments from ;PAGE ONE, of the Irma threat. Probably a lot for us to learn from early judgments.

Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting

I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.

Early signs point to a fish...but we shall see.

If this look holds true though, it will be hard for a storm to come close to the EC.

.should turn ots in time but still

Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC
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Notice that none of these statements from the various members said definite safe recurve....only a likely safe recurve. So, these statements weren't inappropriate. In most cases when a storm forms that far east and that far north, it won't even get close to the US. That will still be the case going forward. The thing to learn from this is to never say never, which again wasn't a problem with any of these statements. Saying likely recurve based on 100+ years of history is not a mistake. Saying definite recurve would have been a mistake.
 
GaWx said:
Notice that none of these statements from the various members said definite safe recurve....only a likely safe recurve. So, these statements weren't inappropriate. In most cases when a storm forms that far east and that far north, it won't even get close to the US. That will still be the case going forward. The thing to learn from this is to never say never, which again wasn't a problem with any of these statements. Saying likely recurve based on 100+ years of history is not a mistake. Saying definite recurve would have been a mistake.
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I didn't say they were inappropriate, just how we judge things, hurricanes, winter weather, severe threats, etc..so quickly and they often end up totally different in a few days.
 
Ok, Banter. I have said this before, I don't need to defend James Spann, but I do know him personally and can tell you on oath, no one tries harder, cares more, or tries to learn from mistakes more than James Spann. He is one of the few that will come back afterwards and tell you he was wrong and why and he will try to use that in the future so as not to make the same mistake. The idea that he is stupid or making forecasts for publicity is just asinine and quite frankly wrong. He has to be on TV and radio for many stations several times a day. He has to give his best interpretation of data at that time. He can't change his mind with every model run or shift. Just look how this thing has changed back and forth over the past few days. Many of you have changed your opinion several times. The difference is, yours doesn't matter, and the general public never sees yours. Also, we are all weenies, that is why we are here. The general public doesn't know or care about 10% of what we discuss here. Anyway, keep doing what you all do and providing the great ideas and comments, especially the pros on here. Just stop the bashing of others. Woo, I feel better now. MRStorm out.
 
does anybody find it strange that every few hours the "track" of the storm makes big changes? how does anybody state ANY of the last 48 hours of model runs were the correct path?
 
bashing James Spann is supposed to be in the storm thread????????? and why so much hate for this decent man?
 
For any of you sheltering in place, my thoughts are with you. After the storm, you'll see utility crews from around the nation. These guys work 12-18 hour shifts for days on end during assessment/restoration. If you get the opportunity (and have the means), make or buy one of them a cup of coffee, or hand them a bottle of water. It's a very thankless job they do for the majority of the time. And the smallest gesture can lift their spirits.
 
Glenn Burns is going by the NWS, and the NWS only. It seems like he lets the NWS do all the work and he doesn't give a forecast from himself. He says there won't be severe winds in north Georgia. That's wrong, there will be severe winds in north Georgia. Severe winds meaning 58mph or greater.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Glenn Burns is going by the NWS, and the NWS only. It seems like he lets the NWS do all the work and he doesn't give a forecast from himself. He says there won't be severe winds in north Georgia. That's wrong, there will be severe winds in north Georgia. Severe winds meaning 58mph or greater.
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Kinda still to early to tell. Glenn got beat up for hyping the April tornado potential. It busted here and he got flack. Guess he's scared.
 
proud dad said:
I hope I don't get banned, but can you say the s--t word on here?http://www.snappytv.com/tc/5712904 I hope they got out of there!
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Those people are certifiably insane. Lmao! Of all places in FL, I sure as hell wouldn't want to ride out a Category 4/5 hurricane in the keys. But hey more power to them, at least they're getting hammered and having a great time doing it! LOL
 
The only question I would ask you "bashers" is what would you have been telling the public the past week. The Official NHC Track has changed often and considerably. When he was saying the things he is being bashed for, he was basing it on their track. Hell, you guys have been changing your tunes and "opinions" four and five times a day. I love this board for the knowledge, wit, humor and usual welcoming attitudes. But the pompous bashing of a true professional has diminished my desire to be more involved. This on the heels of becoming a "contributor" for the reasons mentioned above. I will go back to reading only the posts that look informative and remain silent.
 
Lol Glenn Burns now saying Atlanta looking at stronger winds, 4" of rain and he put in bold letters that south Florida will not get hit with cat 5 storm
 
We've been tracking Irma for what seems like forever, I'm exhausted and we aren't finished.... take a moment and look at Jose thread. Oh boy
 
metwannabe said:
We've been tracking Irma for what seems like forever, I'm exhausted and we aren't finished.... take a moment and look at Jose thread. Oh boy
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Yeah, I remember saying almost 2 weeks ago it was going to be a long 2 weeks. It appears I was right unfortunately, and to see Jose coming more east. I swear if it ends up going into the Southeast or the Gulf... :confused:
 
I'm pretty sure up until the last couple days, nobody would've believe Alabama would have any impacts. Some of you guys act like you've had this figured out from day 1 lol.
 
Ryan Sanders said:
I'm pretty sure up until the last couple days, nobody would've believe Alabama would have any impacts. Some of you guys act like you've had this figured out from day 1 lol.
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its the whole fun part about it, sometimes your wrong and sometimes your right. Welcome to the weather world.;)
 
accu35 said:
its the whole fun part about it, sometimes your wrong and sometimes your right. Welcome to the weather world.;)
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The fun part is trying to forecast a hurricane from 5-7 days out. Let's all bash the NHC while we are at it. They had a landfall in South Carolina at one point. Those idiots.
 
BillT said:
why is the Spann bashing allowed to continue in the storm thread?
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They aren't. We are doing the best we can to moderate but the posts come fast and there are times when they aren't seen. As FS said the posts will be deleted moving forward

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TY for the replies.....my comment wasnt intended to be critical of the moderation effort although i see how it could be read that way......my "problem" is the lack of respect being shown to the board and you mods by the repeat offenders(my quick refreshing is seeing some right before you folks delete them).
 
BillT said:
TY for the replies.....my comment wasnt intended to be critical of the moderation effort although i see how it could be read that way......my "problem" is the lack of respect being shown to the board and you mods by the repeat offenders(my quick refreshing is seeing some right before you folks delete them).
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Understood and not a problem.

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