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Tropical Hurricane Ian

S

severestorm

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Location
Asheville, NC
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Really need hurricane season to calm until at least after Fall Break. We have plans to visit Gulf Shores for the first time in years since neither boy is playing football this year. Unfortunately it might not be looking good. ??
 
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
organized this morning. Additional development is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the
Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system
as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands
beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
GFS little slower this time with development and a touch more west than the previous run, lots to iron out and lots of time to discuss this one but dang the model consensus for something is certainly there.

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934mb in the gulf headed somewhere! Looks further west this run.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Slower, more W, I don’t see a hook E towards Carolinas as strong. Darn.
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Lol... should still head NE, will break Shetley's drought (wait who am I kidding). Anyway, upper air players a little different in long range and impossible to get a good idea at this point, some energy along the US/Can border @222 wasn't there on previous runs. But yeah any hard north hook up the eastern seaboard dwindling with the slow development. If that occurs
 
metwannabe said:
Lol... should still head NE, will break Shetley's drought (wait who am I kidding). Anyway, upper air players a little different in long range and impossible to get a good idea at this point, some energy along the US/Can border @222 wasn't there on previous runs. But yeah any hard north hook up the eastern seaboard dwindling with the slow development. If that occurs
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To clarify, I'm talking hard north hook, @Lickwx weenie run prior to it getting to the gulf type of turn lol
 
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