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Tropical PTC8

Icon comes back SW it'll be interesting to see if we can get better consistency with this 0z suite. There has still been this wide window with the models kind of wandering around within it so far the 0z icon, nams and hires fv3 are close together.

I do think a system that can quickly organize may end to bring surprisingly impactful wrt to wind inland with the pressure gradient across the state
 
2 runs now for the farther southwest track on the GFS. It may just turn out to be right. It now has .50 or better rainfall for much of western NC and SC, with the 2 inch line knocking on my door. The ICON is dry here but was southwest of the 18z run.
 
JHS said:
2 runs now for the farther southwest track on the GFS. It may just turn out to be right. It now has .50 or better rainfall for much of western NC and SC, with the 2 inch line knocking on my door. The ICON is dry here but was southwest of the 18z run.
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This GFS run (0Z) crosses the coast down at Georgetown. That’s the furthest SW landfall of any run since way back on 9/10 (12Z), which was similar and was the first run with this. Just 24 hours ago it came in at Cape Lookout. So, the 24 hour shift is ~200 miles meaning GFS track is far from settled.
 
0Z UKMET: Whereas 12Z initially moved W through Sun night before turning NE and staying offshore past Hatteras, the 0Z also initially moves W through Sun night but then turns NNE instead of NE thus bringing it inland NE of Wilmington, NC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.9N 76.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2024 0 30.9N 76.6W 1009 29
1200UTC 15.09.2024 12 31.4N 77.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 16.09.2024 24 31.6N 78.5W 1007 41
1200UTC 16.09.2024 36 31.4N 79.2W 1007 35
0000UTC 17.09.2024 48 32.4N 78.3W 1008 29
1200UTC 17.09.2024 60 34.5N 77.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 18.09.2024 72 37.1N 78.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2024 84 40.5N 78.4W 1010 29
0000UTC 19.09.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING
 
0Z Euro/JMA: similar to UKMET (W then NNE into NC). So, 0Z GFS is a clear outlier.
 
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Models ( well the GFS ) seem to struggle with which area becomes the main system...things could be more interesting if the eastern area wins out as it is further away from land so obviously would have more time to do whatever it is going to do. It's also closer to where the lower surface pressures are...the reason the GFS was so different at 06 is it developed the western area...really do not see this amounting to much though you never know, regardless the gradient packing on the north side will cause over wash issues galore on the OBX though.


57a50fe4-7579-4950-aa04-ee16b6b85df4.jpg
 
SD said:
I think if the center goes to our south we will be much more windy. The HRRR was a lot of 40+ gusts
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Already 15 gusting to 25 here at PGV this afternoon, the western center is the one to watch....also it seems to have a decent LLC now and is tucking it closer to the MLC, if this had 36 hrs it would probably make a run at a weak cane.

Probably gonna be a PTC or even TD at 2 maybe if the plane can get there in time....
 
Downeastnc said:
Already 15 gusting to 25 here at PGV this afternoon, the western center is the one to watch....also it seems to have a decent LLC now and is tucking it closer to the MLC, if this had 36 hrs it would probably make a run at a weak cane.

Probably gonna be a PTC or even TD at 2 maybe if the plane can get there in time....
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I'm interested to see what recon finds it's really doing a decent job organizing after that eastern low/convection started losing influence
 
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