Tropical Invest 91L

[SD]

NE gulf. Might be choosin texas

 

[Brent]

Pretty crazy with the ridge it makes Texas but then again... It's been a strange summer in the Plains already

 

[weather bubba]

Wherever this system ends up going, it is going to take its time getting there. Hopefully some of the moisture it is producing will come our way while it spins in the Gulf and decides where to go.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Satellite imagery appears to suggest two competing circulations with the broader weak circulation. One is likely an MLC, near 28N and 83W, and the other near 25.5N and 84.5W. Again, just eyeballing visible imagery.

Should this system consolidate farther south than previously thought, that would make things far more interesting.

 

[NCSNOW]

Texas just had massive flooding past few days. This gets inland becomes a big rain producer, could spell major trouble.

 

[Brent]

Alright then. In a normal summer I would say no but yeah it hasn't stopped raining out here yet... I mean it's supposed to but it was supposed to do a lot of things

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning! Landfall near TX/LA border:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W



LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND

VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)

-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25

0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28

1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30

0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33

1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38

0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50

1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51

0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52

1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44

0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40

1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36

0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37

1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

 

[Rain Cold]

HMON doing work.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row with a TD, which it has forming today, and a TS, which it has upgraded to Mon night, but doesn’t get as strong as prior 2 runs; mainly WNW movement to SE LA Wed night

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 27.4N 85.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 12 27.4N 85.2W 1011 23
0000UTC 20.07.2026 24 28.0N 85.1W 1008 25
1200UTC 20.07.2026 36 27.7N 85.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.6N 86.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.07.2026 72 28.9N 86.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.7N 88.3W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.9N 89.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.4N 90.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is the 1st one that I can recall with TCG. It even gets to borderline TS status S of the W FL panhandle Tue night

 

[Brent]

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Recent satellite-wind data and nearby surface observations indicate
that an area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America is slowly becoming better defined. However, its associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Regardless,
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days as the system
moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the
northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana
should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to
bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.