NE gulf. Might be choosin texas
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Tropical Invest 91L
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Pretty crazy with the ridge it makes Texas but then again... It's been a strange summer in the Plains already
Wherever this system ends up going, it is going to take its time getting there. Hopefully some of the moisture it is producing will come our way while it spins in the Gulf and decides where to go.
Satellite imagery appears to suggest two competing circulations with the broader weak circulation. One is likely an MLC, near 28N and 83W, and the other near 25.5N and 84.5W. Again, just eyeballing visible imagery.
Should this system consolidate farther south than previously thought, that would make things far more interesting.
Should this system consolidate farther south than previously thought, that would make things far more interesting.
Texas just had massive flooding past few days. This gets inland becomes a big rain producer, could spell major trouble.
Brent
Member
Alright then. In a normal summer I would say no but yeah it hasn't stopped raining out here yet... I mean it's supposed to but it was supposed to do a lot of things 
The 12Z UKMET was the 4th full run (full runs are at 0Z/12Z) that developed this into a mainly W moving full fledged TS. The last 2 runs developed it into a TD by early tomorrow morning!
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 27.1N 84.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.5N 84.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 36 28.1N 85.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.2N 86.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 21.07.2026 60 28.1N 86.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.4N 86.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 84 29.2N 86.2W 997 50
1200UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.6N 86.9W 998 51
0000UTC 23.07.2026 108 29.3N 87.8W 996 52
1200UTC 23.07.2026 120 28.9N 88.8W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 132 28.7N 90.0W 999 40
1200UTC 24.07.2026 144 29.0N 92.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 25.07.2026 156 29.3N 94.2W 1004 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
HMON doing work.