Tropical Hurricane Francine

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like the EURO brings Francine’s center to my west on the 12Z run. Put’s northwest MS in the right front quadrant.

 

[Henry2326]

12z GFS.....979 in approach to LA.....this could be interesting.

 

[SD]

Looks like this thing may be tilted to the west a little with the MLC vorticity blowing deep convection west of the better low level swirl. There's also a bit of elongation in the slp field as this interacts with the leftovers of 90L. Once this thing eats whatever is left of 90L and stacks itself it shouldn't take long to go to TD/TS status. Have to question if it gets too close to the Mx coast around D3 and that potentially throws off the eventual track which has reasonably good agreement on the models at the moment.

 

[Brent]

We've seen some sudden blowups in this area before(Humberto in 07 famously went from nothing to a hurricane in 18 hours)

 

[SD]

Meant to add once this gets inland it may get stuck under the big ridge that's going to form over the lakes and NE if it does we will still likely be dealing with the remnants 10-12 days from now until it completely dissolves. Alternatively it may ride north on the western side of the ridge and quickly exit

 

[NWMSGuy]

HWRF moves this onto land just south of the TX/MX border at hour 102 then back out into the Gulf at hour 114 then back onto land at hour 123.

 

[Henry2326]

There you go....that's some kind of consensus....

 

[NWMSGuy]

AI 12Z run.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Henry2326]

80%

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS is going to come in hot

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Brent]

So much for the dead season

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[vtrap90]

So much for the dead season View attachment 150832

You just need one to make it memorable.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Older run above, 2024-09-07 18:00Z. Go to link for image that shifts back and forth between old and new run. https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.e...ting_image=2024al91_diagplot_202409071800.png

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: landfall as a TS Wed (9/11) evening C LA; moves NE to far E TN, where it dissipates Fri night (9/13-4)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 20.5N 94.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2024 36 20.5N 94.4W 1005 40
0000UTC 10.09.2024 48 21.8N 93.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 10.09.2024 60 23.1N 95.0W 1005 31
0000UTC 11.09.2024 72 24.7N 94.0W 1001 30
1200UTC 11.09.2024 84 26.9N 93.3W 998 38
0000UTC 12.09.2024 96 29.2N 91.6W 996 36
1200UTC 12.09.2024 108 31.8N 89.6W 999 32
0000UTC 13.09.2024 120 32.9N 88.8W 1002 20
1200UTC 13.09.2024 132 34.4N 87.9W 1006 16
0000UTC 14.09.2024 144 36.6N 84.0W 1008 14
1200UTC 14.09.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

 

[Belle Lechat]