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Tropical Ian Ianland Thread

From RAH (it's going to be windy regardless of the category of the storm):


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds and Isolated Tornadoes Possible Friday and
Saturday...

By Friday morning, the center of Ian is currently expected to be
somewhere off the FL/GA coast, while a 1031 mb high will be centered
across the Northeast. Cold air advection will be in full force
across the area as Ian moves towards the region. Although the exact
path of Ian is still coming together, a tightening pressure gradient
between the high to our north and Ian will help increase winds ahead
of the system across a large area. Northeasterly gusts of 35-45 mph
are possible across most areas of central NC by Friday afternoon and
will linger overnight. Rain will develop ahead of the system,
especially with excellent moist 300K isentropic upglide Friday
night. The atmosphere will slowly saturate throughout the column
early Friday, then heavier rain is expected Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. By the end of the weekend, 2-5 inches of rain are
expected across the region. Flash flooding is possible where areas
receive a lot of rain in a short period of time, however other areas
that have been dry for a while may be able to handle the extra
rainfall to an extent. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding are
currently our greatest threats for the weekend. Isolated tornadoes
are possible, especially on the eastern half of Ian`s circulation.

The remnants of Ian will linger across the region through early next
week before pushing east/northeast. An upper ridge will build north
across the Plains for the end of the weekend, then slowly flatten
through the middle of next week. A trough will dive south across the
Great Lakes region early next week and merge with the lingering
upper circulation from Ian that remains stalled across the region,
then the low will finally lift northeast by the middle of next week.
Rain will remain in the forecast through Tuesday, with the remnant
low remaining nearby.

The cold air advection, lower heights, cloud cover and precipitation
will help keep high temperatures below normal through the long-term.
Highs across the Triad may remain in the 60s through early next
week, with areas of the southern Coastal Plain only increasing to
the low 70s. Lows will be mostly in the 50s.

Please continue to monitor for further updates as the details in
this weekend`s forecast further come together.
 
When you talk about a system going extra tropical combining with a jet and all those dynamics at play.. add in the fact that we have this storm going over water for much longer than previously thought you have to think this could be a sneaky underrated wind event for our area as a whole. Now we do have solutions that are further south and west but even in those solutions I can see a dynamic system throwing us more wind than previously thought. I know people are hesitant about being in the cool sector but I think the bands of rain we could see of heavy returns will really help to bring wind down to the ground. And if this ends up land falling like the HRRR solution and NAM around Wilmington or so we then open up the potential for real tropical storm conditions for our area.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
When you talk about a system going extra tropical combining with a jet and all those dynamics at play.. add in the fact that we have this storm going over water for much longer than previously thought you have to think this could be a sneaky underrated wind event for our area as a whole. Now we do have solutions that are further south and west but even in those solutions I can see a dynamic system throwing us more wind than previously thought. I know people are hesitant about being in the cool sector but I think the bands of rain we could see of heavy returns will really help to bring wind down to the ground. And if this ends up land falling like the HRRR solution and NAM around Wilmington or so we then open up the potential for real tropical storm conditions for our area.
Click to expand...
yeah agree on all points. Especially if a strengthening ridge to his NE packs the gradient. The 12k nam UH tracks also show the severe threats over central and eastern NC.
 
I’m really surprised that GSP hasn’t issued Tropical Storm Watches for any of their forecast area.
 
This probably going to be rough in NC from CLT over to RDU and up into the Triad with all models showing 60+ gusts in that area. Also the area from Rock Hill and Beaufort and northeast of there in SC.
 
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