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Tropical Ian Ianland Thread

SD said:
The bust line is way west of rdu unless you are considering going from 6-8 to 2-4 a bust. Once this starts turning left and getting more extratropical there will be 2 corridors of heavy rain one along and left of the track and the second east and northeast on the east side of the mid level dry punch. This isn't going to be a late summer/ early September system where the heavy rain is more likely to stay pinned closer to the circulation
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Yep, will be nice to see the actual track get somewhat nailed down in a day or so. Also as dry as it’s been it will take a little bit for the ground to catch up.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I think so. If you're west of Raleigh I think the bust level is high. If you're expecting more rain than you typically get in a thunderstorm or two. Just my opinion. But yeah if this does take a hard left into the piedmont, more rain. But I think this thing just from climo stays closer to the coast.
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This isn’t a normal climo set up though. Again the hurricane is not the only factor leading to heavy rain.
 
jeremyt said:
Yep, will be nice to see the actual track get somewhat nailed down in a day or so.
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Indeed it makes a huge difference on impacts locally. Get something like the nam and UK and you are looking at tropical storm wind getting as far N as say my backyard and rdu with 4-8 inches of rain. Get a cmc/gfs solution and it's a breezy day with 2-4 inches of rain
 
Chazwin said:
This isn’t a normal climo set up though. Again the hurricane is not the only factor leading to heavy rain.
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Exactly, it's getting pulled from the Cold Front and additional jet extensions. This isn't a typical landfalling hurricane coming up the east side of Florida favoring Northern SC and Southern NC. Could it make it that far North? Of course but about 90% of available guidance says no.
 
iGRXY said:
Exactly, it's getting pulled from the Cold Front and additional jet extensions. This isn't a typical landfalling hurricane coming up the east side of Florida favoring Northern SC and Southern NC. Could it make it that far North? Of course but about 90% of available guidance says no.
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Yes and for people that are still on this “not buying into the hard left turn” to the NNW or NW, the UK, as well as all other modeling is still showing that quite clearly. It’s just a difference of where it turns
 
It'll be interesting to see how far north this ultimately gets. If it gets stuck in western nc/north GA then kind of meanders east there will be potential to extend the rain window out to Monday or Tuesday and add another 1-2 inches of rain
 
deltadog03 said:
Hoping yall get some very beneficial rains up there to my north
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Ive invested heavily in it Grass seed.
SD is spot on. The funneling of HP with NE wind and counter clockwise IAN circulation will do the trick.
Watch the river flood tommorow st johns river. Gonna be epic even though its on east side to central Florida. Same mechanisms at play as storm exits, pushing tide water back inland as river is getting loaded up today an tonight from a foot of rain. This will be a Florida benchmark storm when all is said an done.
 
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase
early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb
surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to
be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville
at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear
likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge
of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA
during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning
Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most
likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of
Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression
expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri
night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain
widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday
morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/
localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most
pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong
easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow
axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of
the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to
focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical
characteristics.

In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the
area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher
momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable
layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to
preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the
CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in
mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are
a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon
into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring
WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to
coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC.

A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression
will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills
on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its
battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of
the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern
half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through
Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within
deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central
Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible
in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat
night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA,
with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are
still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to
8 inches are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 pm Wednesday: The remnants of Ian are expected to continue
to spin down across the CWA early in the medium range, before
finally kicking out to the east in the Mon/Tue time frame in
response to a region of height falls diving southeast from the
northern Great Plains. While the widespread heavy rainfall is
expected to be more or less done at the start of the period, ample
moisture will remain in place to support some degree of showers and
locally heavy/excessive rainfall, especially across western NC. PoPs
therefore slowly trend downward through the period, with complete
drying not expected until Tue/Wed. Temps will remain below normal
through the period.

GSP's take on it this afternoon.
 
JHS said:
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase
early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb
surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to
be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville
at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear
likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge
of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA
during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning
Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most
likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of
Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression
expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri
night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain
widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday
morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/
localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most
pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong
easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow
axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of
the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to
focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical
characteristics.

In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the
area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher
momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable
layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to
preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the
CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in
mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are
a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon
into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring
WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to
coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC.

A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression
will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills
on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its
battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of
the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern
half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through
Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within
deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central
Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible
in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat
night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA,
with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are
still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to
8 inches are forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 pm Wednesday: The remnants of Ian are expected to continue
to spin down across the CWA early in the medium range, before
finally kicking out to the east in the Mon/Tue time frame in
response to a region of height falls diving southeast from the
northern Great Plains. While the widespread heavy rainfall is
expected to be more or less done at the start of the period, ample
moisture will remain in place to support some degree of showers and
locally heavy/excessive rainfall, especially across western NC. PoPs
therefore slowly trend downward through the period, with complete
drying not expected until Tue/Wed. Temps will remain below normal
through the period.

GSP's take on it this afternoon.
Click to expand...
Sounds like they think along and east of highway 25 is where the heaviest acid of rain will be. Makes sense as that cuts through the middle of the southern mountains
 
Appears the surge/flooding in ft myers & naples caught people off guard as most expected it north of there.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ive invested heavily in it Grass seed.
SD is spot on. The funneling of HP with NE wind and counter clockwise IAN circulation will do the trick.
Watch the river flood tommorow st johns river. Gonna be epic even though its on east side to central Florida. Same mechanisms at play as storm exits, pushing tide water back inland as river is getting loaded up today an tonight from a foot of rain. This will be a Florida benchmark storm when all is said an done.
Click to expand...
Seeded last Saturday, these rains will be perfect!
 
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