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Tropical Hurricane Sam

Thunderstorms getting darker now and trying to surround the eye .. by morning she might honestly be 4
 
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Still looks like a little dry air entrained in the core, currently on the eastern side, not really slowing him down much but might be keeping him from going totally beast mode. Sam has a nice cooling expanding CDO in the W and S quads........though he looks close to maybe resolving that.....

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Pretty decent west wobble the last 6 or 7 frames almost SW a frame or two.....really looking the part now, full badass....


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Tornadocane said:
This one is competing for most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic basin. Multiple 190-200MPH winds several hundred feet up.

Although, I'm not sure if they take Dropsonde into account when gauging Maximum Sustained Winds. The highest SFMR was 165MPH.

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Still not as high as what we saw in Maria and Irma, I think we saw 185 knts in some drops at that point.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Still not as high as what we saw in Maria and Irma, I think we saw 185 knts in some drops at that point.
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There was a 180 knot wind with a bunch of mid-170s on the NW side at the end of the flight. The difference is only 7-12MPH. So it's impressive that Sam is close to that kind of intensity.

Maria and Irma reached peak intensity of 175 and 180 MPH, respectively. 190MPH is the record.
 
Brent said:
They considered the higher winds gusts but we'll see what happens in future recons
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The sat presentation is impressive. Not sure why those higher end winds weren't believable?
 

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12Z UKMET says look out Bermuda as this run’s center only barely misses it to the east and thus hits it hard with its northern and western side as still a major hurricane:



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2021

HURRICANE SAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2021 0 13.9N 50.2W 947 104
0000UTC 27.09.2021 12 14.5N 50.6W 963 88
1200UTC 27.09.2021 24 15.4N 51.5W 970 76
0000UTC 28.09.2021 36 16.3N 52.3W 975 66
1200UTC 28.09.2021 48 17.1N 53.4W 976 67
0000UTC 29.09.2021 60 17.8N 54.4W 978 61
1200UTC 29.09.2021 72 18.6N 55.8W 978 63
0000UTC 30.09.2021 84 19.8N 57.6W 971 72
1200UTC 30.09.2021 96 21.1N 59.7W 966 74
0000UTC 01.10.2021 108 23.3N 61.5W 964 79
1200UTC 01.10.2021 120 25.9N 63.4W 962 79
0000UTC 02.10.2021 132 29.4N 64.5W 956 85
1200UTC 02.10.2021 144 33.7N 63.8W 943 105

Aside: But if I were to have to be stuck on an island in the middle of the ocean in a hurricane though, I’d pick Bermuda first. They handle them quite well for several reasons.
 
Amazing how powerful Sam is for a storm that also continues to spit out arcus/outflow boundaries on the NW and SW portions of the circulation...which might have contributed to the hyper velocity gusts that was detected last night.

Aside from those things noted, Sam's circulation is violent..
 
5pm discussion 150 mph and recon will be there in a few hours

It would not take much further expansion of the convection and
cooling of the cloud tops over the inner-most core of Sam for it to
become a rare Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
wind scale.
 
Brent said:
5pm discussion 150 mph and recon will be there in a few hours

It would not take much further expansion of the convection and
cooling of the cloud tops over the inner-most core of Sam for it to
become a rare Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
wind scale.
Click to expand...

Imo it was there last night With those winds they were finding.
 
Tornadocane said:
It pisses me off that there wasn't another recon flight. I hope they can confirm it today. It's got some crazy spin right now.
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There was supposed to be one this morning not sure what happened

But it definitely is annoying... We really could have proven it was a 5 because of how high the winds were last night
 
Brent said:
There was supposed to be one this morning not sure what happened

But it definitely is annoying... We really could have proven it was a 5 because of how high the winds were last night
Click to expand...

I'm trying to rationalize it. I don't know how an SFMR observation is better than a dropsonde. I feel like a dropsonde could get a more accurate reading causes it's catching the winds all the way down to the surface. On the hand, winds at higher levels of the atmosphere could move it at a faster velocity while it drops to levels where winds are lower. The momentum would cause an over-estimated reading.
 
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