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Tropical Hurricane Sam
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Downeastnc
Member
Sam is recurving here but would it still hit further up the east coast? We'll never know because this run is over!
Was not recurving much still moving NW on the last 3 plots, extrap it out and it would be SC/NC border, the real key is the ULL over the lower Ohio valley, that makes me very nervous.....
If that ULL drifts SW at all we got problems...assuming this is what the map actually looks like in 10 days....
0Z EPS is at this point more threatening than the prior run but we'll see what % recurve before the CONUS. Looks like an arrow pointed for the CONUS here but I still expect a good % to recurve pretty sharply later in the run. We'll know soon:
Edit: Most did recurve sharply and only a couple of members hit the CONUS (NC).
Edit: Most did recurve sharply and only a couple of members hit the CONUS (NC).
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Downeastnc
Member
still a miss but cutting it close with that turn....
Almost giving me Hugo Vibes
Downeastnc
Member
If that ULL was 200 miles further SW and not moving much we would have problems......06Z GFS crushes Bermuda, another 300 mile shift for the GFS.
Right still got time to trend that way the ULL was in northeast on earlier runs.
Henry2326
Member
HMmmm....one of these is horribly wrong, hope it's this one.
Henry2326
Member
Yeah just about out of time for a completely clean recurve here and numerous less that desirable scenarios are possible. It's good to see many of the eps on the map posted above with an earlier safer turn and just looking through the eps data we have a few around here that produce high rain totals but the wind gusts aren't anything crazy so I'm assuming they are more related to the ull/fronts than Sam. Playing with fire here though any model adjustments toward the euro are not good but if the Euro goes toward other models then it's not a big deal for most posters on this board
At least the general trend of the eps has been south/stronger with the trough and the axis stays off shore. If the mean starts backing the trough axis west and getting more of a cut off look it might be time to get nervous 
Downeastnc
Member
Interesting should this storm miss the s/e a lot of areas look to go 384+ hours without any rain per model consensus. A weakened state would be nice like a CAT1 otherwise the weather is set to be fairly dry. Feast or famine take your pick.
Yeah I believe that's right. In this case, there's a awful lot of work that needs to be done for a big SE hit. A track avoiding the SE is highly favored right now.
Here is hugo for reference as well
Just looking at the upper air analogs from the GFS and finding systems active at the time you have:
Josephine 1984
Daisy 1962
Ginny 1963
Sutrop Depression 22 2005
Jeanne 2004
Josephine 1984
Daisy 1962
Ginny 1963
Sutrop Depression 22 2005
Jeanne 2004
Henry2326
Member