Slight uptick, trend definitely needs watching12Z EPS: I count (at least) 4 hits on S or C FL (10/4-5) with also several different ones hitting further up in the SE US 10/5-6 meaning about 15% or so of the members hitting the SE US:
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Sam
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
12z ICON is slightly slower than Euro and just a smidge north of the Euro's position on 9/29.
Henry2326
Member
12z Euro......Sam, I am looks ominous.
Last edited:
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
^ So weaker storms plow directly in mtns of Caribbean’s like storms so far this season, hurricanes will ride just north of the islands
Shaggy
Member
Looks like a classic model battle setting g up between the euro western track and the gfs full far east recurve. Seasonal pattern says gfs will be right.most MDR storms have fished fast and early.
Shaggy
Member
Shaggy
Member
The trend sw is very solid on the 18z gfs
Shaggy
Member
Very significant shift west it also still a very far east recurve.
New system in the Bahamas interfered with that track run. Large swings still likely for many runs if that is the case.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah I noticed that. Overall the trend was significantly further west for the gfs still. Bares watching to see how it shakes out. One of the better looks for the east coast IF this west shift holds.
Thor
Member
Seems like a lot to be worked out on this one.
Henry2326
Member
Convection is going up maybe it’s gonna take off during dmax. And Africa looks crazy busy we have several areas to watch right after this one. 
Brent
Member
I have serious doubts this would make it to the US unless it struggles and gets into the Caribbean if this is a hurricane north of the islands yeah it's gonna be a recurve most likely
Shaggy
Member
Clear break in the modeling as it approaches the islands. The gfs hooks it out for the recurve but the euro keeps is steadily WNW.
Henry2326
Member
00z Euro and ICON aligned.
