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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Levi makes a good point tonight on his video, that the only thing hindering Sally is OTS ability to become vertically aligned. The GFS takes it until landfall before it can align, while the HWRF aligns when it makes it into the Gulf. After that, the ceiling is high as far as how strong it can get due to limited shear and warm SST’s.
 
CADEffect said:
This could be very bad for New Orleans. That angle and tilt of the storm would drive water over levies even in the city near the lake. The way it’s model now looks worse the the direction Katrina moved in.

Sad.


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Scenario building for a possible tragedy.....
 
CADEffect said:
This could be very bad for New Orleans. That angle and tilt of the storm would drive water over levies even in the city near the lake. The way it’s model now looks worse the the direction Katrina moved in.

Sad.


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Yes it is sad, and this angle sets up not only water topping over levies near the lake, but the approach would also push the surge up the river out of the Gulf. A 6-9 foot storm surge doesn’t sound catastrophic, but most of those areas are anywhere from right at sea level to 4-6 feet below.
 
00z NAM......goes from 974 to 952 in the last 7 hours.....That demonstrates RI at its finest.....
This tilt west could be devastating.....

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_fh45-59.gif
 
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One silver lining about the very slow movement is that the strongest landfalls are normally from storms not crawling because there’s not enough time for the SSTs to cool from its own wake. So, despite the slow movement being very bad news for rainfall and length of time with strong winds, hopefully this will also mean some weakening before landfall.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes it is sad, and this angle sets up not only water topping over levies near the lake, but the approach would also push the surge up the river out of the Gulf. A 6-9 foot storm surge doesn’t sound catastrophic, but most of those areas are anywhere from right at sea level to 4-6 feet below.
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GaWx said:
One silver lining about the very slow movement is that the strongest landfalls are normally from storms not crawling because there’s not enough time for the SSTs to cool from its own wake.
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Tell that to harvey
 
I can't get over how we are looking at a potential cat 2 or higher hurricane now with this one forming out of the blue off the Florida coast. Definitely living up to the way things go in 2020.
 
DustinWx said:
Tell that to harvey
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Harvey slowed to a crawl only near landfall, the worst of all worlds. The key is whether or not Sally will slow down while still offshore. If she doesn’t until right around or only a little before landfall, that’s the worst case scenario.
 
For NOLA The river is gonna push backwards with this angle . Lake ponchotrain push south toward dams northern NO. Then slow moving storm dump tons of rain. Problem is the pump system will have no where to pump water out of NO.
 
East Louisiana to Fl panhandle look out!!!
hwrf_ref_19L_13.png
 
Sally looking really good tonight, shes putting on a show.
 
I see why the Euro is little further west than the other models is because it pretty much stay weak. Weaker west stronger east. I believe if Sally really intensifies tonight and tomorrow than expect a east trend
 
Recon supporting 60 mph at least Sally ain't playing

URNT12 KNHC 130644
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 13/06:18:00Z
B. 26.73 deg N 083.59 deg W
C. 925 mb 705 m
D. EXTRAP 1002 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 47 kt
I. 132 deg 83 nm 05:51:00Z
J. 210 deg 33 kt
K. 132 deg 81 nm 05:51:30Z
L. 52 kt
M. 048 deg 27 nm 06:27:00Z
N. 128 deg 57 kt
O. 049 deg 40 nm 06:31:30Z
P. 21 C / 763 m
Q. 22 C / 760 m
R. 22 C / NA
S. 134 / 9
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF308 0219A SALLY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 049 / 40 NM 06:31:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 134 / 51 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
 
Brent said:
Recon supporting 60 mph at least Sally ain't playing

URNT12 KNHC 130644
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 13/06:18:00Z
B. 26.73 deg N 083.59 deg W
C. 925 mb 705 m
D. EXTRAP 1002 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 47 kt
I. 132 deg 83 nm 05:51:00Z
J. 210 deg 33 kt
K. 132 deg 81 nm 05:51:30Z
L. 52 kt
M. 048 deg 27 nm 06:27:00Z
N. 128 deg 57 kt
O. 049 deg 40 nm 06:31:30Z
P. 21 C / 763 m
Q. 22 C / 760 m
R. 22 C / NA
S. 134 / 9
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF308 0219A SALLY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 049 / 40 NM 06:31:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 134 / 51 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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shes at 45 mph moving wnw at 8. Is it stronger than that now?
 
06z HWRF. 992 ????
06z HMON 981

What did it see to cause such a big jump from last forecast....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_13_07_41_57_367.jpg

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_13_07_33_44_017.jpg
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not to sound rude but please stop posting the 3km nam. We've said it before. It's not even remotely reliable on intensity.

Nobody loves at 850 mb so why look at the winds there? Use the surface wind maps more. Also its probably weaker because the storm looks atrocious rn. It's got maybe 6 hours or 12 at best to look nice or it's not even going to be anything worse than a 1 or weak 2.
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I tell ya what.....you post whatever you like....from now on. Have fun with it.
 
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