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Tropical Hurricane Nicole

I was waiting for 3k NAM stupid run, it never disappoints lol

nam3km_ir_seus_39.png
 
Now a tropical storm.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Just got the hurricane warning alert on my phone. I live on the Intracoastal in the Boynton Beach area. This is the first real threat we have had down here since I got here a couple of years ago.
 
Shaggy said:
That's a pretty strong high to its north so the gradient should help that windfield stay large
Click to expand...
This is very true, especially with the wide circulation on the northern side. With the near full moon, there’s definitely going to be some issues with coastal flooding and beach erosion along much of the coastline… really the expanse of those effects will be much more similar to a nor’easter
 
Snowlove33 said:
Is it possible that this storm can be stronger than advertised with it being so huge?
Click to expand...
It’s possible, but it’s also possible that the huge size can hinder strengthening. Ike in 2008 saw pressures of a high end cat 4, but never got higher than 110mph because the energy was so spread out
 
Looks like a severe threat for some of us now for Friday. Cape up to 500-1000 for many in NC and SC SE of I-85.
 
...NICOLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Click to expand...
60/992.
 
From KFFC-Atlanta



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

By the beginning of the long term on Thursday morning Tropical Storm
Nicole is expected to be over eastern FL or just making landfall on
the east FL coastline. Nicole is then expected to move
northwestward and then take a northeast turn once reaching the big
bend of FL. From our last update, the track has shifted with the
cone going through southern and east central GA overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. Impacts will be felt outside of the
cone though, and the cone represents where the storm will fall 2/3
of the time and the track may shift as time goes on.

Winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph Thursday into Friday. Winds
are then expected to taper off into the weekend. Our rainfall
totals have been increased a bit and thus areas could see values
from 1"-3" but with bands coming into the area locally higher
amounts could be possible.

Following this, Nicole is expected to move east of our area as a
front moves into our area and then sweeping Nicole out of our area.
Overall, temps will be on the decline throughout the week especially
into the weekend with high temps maxing out in the 45-55 degree
range across Georgia. PoPs are also expected to decrease into the
weekend.

Hernandez
 
HugeSnowStick said:
From KFFC-Atlanta



.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 229 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

By the beginning of the long term on Thursday morning Tropical Storm
Nicole is expected to be over eastern FL or just making landfall on
the east FL coastline. Nicole is then expected to move
northwestward and then take a northeast turn once reaching the big
bend of FL. From our last update, the track has shifted with the
cone going through southern and east central GA overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. Impacts will be felt outside of the
cone though, and the cone represents where the storm will fall 2/3
of the time and the track may shift as time goes on.

Winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph Thursday into Friday. Winds
are then expected to taper off into the weekend. Our rainfall
totals have been increased a bit and thus areas could see values
from 1"-3" but with bands coming into the area locally higher
amounts could be possible.

Following this, Nicole is expected to move east of our area as a
front moves into our area and then sweeping Nicole out of our area.
Overall, temps will be on the decline throughout the week especially
into the weekend with high temps maxing out in the 45-55 degree
range across Georgia. PoPs are also expected to decrease into the
weekend.

Hernandez
Click to expand...
As dry as it has been in North Georgia, we could absorb the rainfall from four Nicole's without incurring a flooding danger. I hope the path drifts west a tad bit more, though. The 12z hurricane models have a sharp turn to the northeast, taking the best rains with it. Those eastern tracks worry me.
 
Early on i thought a sharp ENE recurve would take it too far east of me but now its slam up the west side of the apps and my totals went from 2.25 inches now down to under .50 inches.
 
Nicole is looking much more like a tropical system now. Hope Florida is prepared and not being lax on this threat. Also the severe threat for NC can’t be diminished this could be a nighttime threat for damaging winds and tornadoes .. the ingredients are all there
 
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