• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Nicole

metwannabe

Meanager and I don't care
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
19,208
Reaction score
40,522
Location
Just south of Roanoke Rapids, NC
Looking better this morning, also now kinda the compact little storm with slight S of due west movement. Good thing it should run out of time to do much strengthening.

recon_NOAA3-1217A-NICOLE.png
 

Shaggy

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Messages
10,412
Reaction score
9,629
Location
Greenville,nc
Looking better this morning, also now kinda the compact little storm with slight S of due west movement. Good thing it should run out of time to do much strengthening.

recon_NOAA3-1217A-NICOLE.png
Yeah. I've been up all night and it catered around 2am and then finally retired storms over the center. For a second I thought it was gonna lose strength but it roared back this morning
 

BufordWX

Hometown: Buford, GA
Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
3,648
Reaction score
10,692
Location
Norman, OK
Haven’t been paying much attention to what models show with the storm as it moves inland, but I just saw FFC increased wind gusts across their area. Showing up to 50-60 mph maximum wind gusts as far north as Macon now. It feels a bit aggressive to me though, but who knows. CA573A69-8FEE-474A-B609-5CE6B81938E7.png
 

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
7,195
Reaction score
7,875
Location
Greenville NC
Most of central and eastern NC with a 5% zone for tornado threat on Friday now.

From their latest disco

Rich low-level moisture, characterized by at least upper 60s surface
dewpoints, is expected to spread inland ahead of the surface low
from the central Carolinas into southern portions of the
Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. Strong low-level flow
associated with a 45-55+ kt southerly low-level jet will be present
over these regions as well. Corresponding enlargement of low-level
hodographs is anticipated, with effective SRH likely reaching at
least 200-300 m2/s2. Modest diurnal heating of the moist low-level
airmass should support the development of weak instability, with
MLCAPE reaching up to around 500 J/kg. Current expectations are for
low-topped supercells capable of producing both tornadoes and
isolated damaging winds to spread gradually northward through the
day from the Carolinas into southern/central VA and vicinity.
 

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
7,195
Reaction score
7,875
Location
Greenville NC
Already seeing the effects of that persistent east fetch, only 2 more days of it.....

pamn7_hg.png


New Bern showing no real outgoing tide, should be several feet of water over the wall there before its all said and done....

bern7_hg.png
 

iGRXY

Member
Joined
Dec 13, 2018
Messages
2,354
Reaction score
7,764
Location
Spartanburg, SC
Waves of heavy showers since probably 10 am. Wind is whipping pretty good already and its causing sheets at times even with just decent showers so far.
 

HugeSnowStick

Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2021
Messages
219
Reaction score
442
Location
Atlanta
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole''s outer bands are beginning to push across
the forecast area this afternoon and impacts are expected to
increase through the night and into Friday. With the most recent
outer band, multiple ASOS sites are recording wind gusts up to
30-40mph across metro ATL and central Georgia, expecting this
trend to continue. In addition, with heavier rain bands beginning
to move into the CWA, expecting an increase in down trees and
powerlines through this evening as grounds become more saturated.
No major changes in QPF at this time, with more persistent
rainfall expected to overspread the area by this evening, through
the overnight hours. This widespread rainfall will persist through
Friday morning before gradually ending from SW to NE through
Friday afternoon, as the remnants of Nicole quickly eject NE.
Currently forecasting majority of north and central Georgia to see
around 1.5-2.0", with locally higher amounts up to 3.0" across
far central Georgia and then the NE Georgia mountains. Thankfully,
given dry antecedent conditions, not anticipating widespread
significant flash flooding issues, though localized issues of
street flooding and drainage problems could arise, particularly
where the locally higher amounts occur with rain bands that setup
over the area. Main threats for the rest of today and through
tonight will be damaging wind gusts causing multiple downed trees
and powerlines, localized flash flooding, and small chance of a
spin-up tropical tornado.
 

J.C.

Elevation: 1135’
Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 11, 2017
Messages
1,391
Reaction score
2,753
Location
East Cobb, GA
Actually a half inch is probably to much at this point, probably .3” or less.
 

Shaggy

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Messages
10,412
Reaction score
9,629
Location
Greenville,nc
Big differences between the 3k nam.and the hrrr for storms over the slight risk area for today.
 

NickyBGuarantee

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
6,894
Reaction score
11,615
Location
Apex, NC
The line looks .. broken in general .. I don’t know.. feels like some people will be skipped in this set up. Probably cause this is going in the morning. If it hit more in the afternoon we would have a bigger problem. I am interested if we can get some sun out before the second surge of moisture .. maybe that could help produce a threat of some sort
 

NickyBGuarantee

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
6,894
Reaction score
11,615
Location
Apex, NC
1668169919249.png
SPC does have this though so we gotta stay aware. Pretty large watch area. I would be more excited for more exciting weather the further NE you go when it comes to this first squall.
 
Top