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Tropical Hurricane Lee

ForsythSnow said:
Clear sudden weakening on the storm this morning. Definitely not a 5 anymore and looks to be still going WNW
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Yep. Got that flat look to its convection on the W side. It's going to continue experiencing shear as long as it continues to gain latitude. At least over next 6-12 hours. 941Mb on latest dropsonde.
 
Brick Tamland said:
When is it supposed to turn north?
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Still about 4 days out but as shaggy noted around 70W (either side of) is what most modeling is depicting

13L_tracks_latest.png
 
metwannabe said:
Several Hurricane models actually bend almost due west just before the turn north, important to keep that in mind if/when that occurs. I'm sure some will start to panic or get excited when that happens lol
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Yeah it's going to be a somewhat quick left turn but thankfully it slows down when it bends back W or even WSW. If it were motoring along and made that turn for 36 hours we'd have bigger issues along the SE coast
 
metwannabe said:
Several Hurricane models actually bend almost due west just before the turn north, important to keep that in mind if/when that occurs. I'm sure some will start to panic or get excited when that happens lol
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Really I would not all clear anyone on the EC just yet, and especially not NC to the north....Jim thinks its gonna be a threat, at this point its more likely to trend west than east by a wide margin....

 
Downeastnc said:
Really I would not all clear anyone on the EC just yet, and especially not NC to the north....Jim thinks its gonna be a threat, at this point its more likely to trend west than east by a wide margin....

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Lot of wishcasting in the comments section of that tweet
 
metwannabe said:
Lot of wishcasting in the comments section of that tweet
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Thats everywhere but the thing I took away is Cantore thought the west trend was not done....I guess 5 days out is a long time for things to change some....if the trough does not dig far enough, or if the ridge is stronger longer, if if if ......I just remember Florence was a guaranteed fish in this range with lots of consensus lol.

Chances are this thing runs up right between the Hatteras and Bermuda and gives the Canadian SE coast a good scare.....just like the models show...
 
Downeastnc said:
Thats everywhere but the thing I took away is Cantore thought the west trend was not done....I guess 5 days out is a long time for things to change some....if the trough does not dig far enough, or if the ridge is stronger longer, if if if ......I just remember Florence was a guaranteed fish in this range with lots of consensus lol.

Chances are this thing runs up right between the Hatteras and Bermuda and gives the Canadian SE coast a good scare.....just like the models show...
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Irma was supposed to stay way off the Southeast . You can can go back and see the Spagetti models. And you see how that turned out. Models are just that models. Nothing is set in stone with hurricanes.
 
Downeastnc said:
Thats everywhere but the thing I took away is Cantore thought the west trend was not done....I guess 5 days out is a long time for things to change some....if the trough does not dig far enough, or if the ridge is stronger longer, if if if ......I just remember Florence was a guaranteed fish in this range with lots of consensus lol.

Chances are this thing runs up right between the Hatteras and Bermuda and gives the Canadian SE coast a good scare.....just like the models show...
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The thing is for every west trend we remember there's an east we probably have forgotten bc we didn't get impacts Joaquin is a prime example, Floyd trended east as well even though it still made LF.

I do think it's worth watching Sunday-Tuesday as it bends back W to make 100% sure it doesn't get buried. With the Atlantic ridge axis to its northeast and a trough over the eastern US unless it gets completely buried south a rapid turn to the NW then N seems most likely. I will say the concern imo for Long Island to Maine is should be pretty high. That Atlantic ridge to the NW of the system makes the east escape harder and I'm not confident that a full miss of the US mainland happens
 
SD said:
The thing is for every west trend we remember there's an east we probably have forgotten bc we didn't get impacts Joaquin is a prime example, Floyd trended east as well even though it still made LF.

I do think it's worth watching Sunday-Tuesday as it bends back W to make 100% sure it doesn't get buried. With the Atlantic ridge axis to its northeast and a trough over the eastern US unless it gets completely buried south a rapid turn to the NW then N seems most likely. I will say the concern imo for Long Island to Maine is should be pretty high. That Atlantic ridge to the NW of the system makes the east escape harder and I'm not confident that a full miss of the US mainland happens
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I think when it slows down we start to see the ensembles spread out...already seeing some signs of that on the 06Z Euro....

ecens_2023-09-08-06Z_144_34.088_278.941_16.058_306.716_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 54.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
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No longer a Cat 5.
 
Anyone heard anything if they will be doing balloon launches over Canada and the northern US to get data for model ingests?
 
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