Tropical Hurricane Larry

[Cadi40]

Just saying the latest models are west. Everything is west these days just saying. I’m not wishcasting tho, but it’s west. Did I mention it’s west?

 

[Shaggy]

So far the 18z icon and gfs are slightly SW of 12z. Not enough to make a difference but interesting.

 

[BHS1975]

Florence 2.0?


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[Brent]

Yup I predict west is gonna be written a lot in this thread

 

[Snowfan]

Yup I predict west is gonna be written a lot in this thread

Over/under 100 times

 

[ForsythSnow]

This thing won't ever come west enough to cause problems. High chance that trough that's modeled will come in and kick it OTS.

 

[Downeastnc]

18Z

 

[lexxnchloe]

I bet the Euro will be be quite a bit west.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I could see this ending up in New England given our recent storms. Probably little fanfare for the Carolinas for the rest of cane season we shall see.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET gets it down to 954 mb:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 22.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2021 0 12.3N 22.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 01.09.2021 12 12.8N 26.8W 1008 27
0000UTC 02.09.2021 24 11.9N 31.2W 1006 29
1200UTC 02.09.2021 36 12.7N 35.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 03.09.2021 48 12.6N 39.6W 1000 39
1200UTC 03.09.2021 60 13.3N 43.4W 995 47
0000UTC 04.09.2021 72 14.5N 46.9W 987 52
1200UTC 04.09.2021 84 16.3N 49.6W 977 56
0000UTC 05.09.2021 96 18.3N 52.0W 973 58
1200UTC 05.09.2021 108 20.3N 54.7W 969 64
0000UTC 06.09.2021 120 22.3N 56.9W 963 71
1200UTC 06.09.2021 132 24.2N 58.9W 964 64
0000UTC 07.09.2021 144 26.0N 60.3W 954 79

 

[GaWx]

0Z CMC is further east vs the 0Z ( recurving just east of Bermuda).

0Z GFS is well OTS. So far, 0Z GEFS mean is also well OTS.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

WELL WE GOT LARRY OUT THERE NOW

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[Henry2326]

8 am discussion.....interesting. they clesrly don't believe the GFS.

 

[RBR71]

8 am discussion.....interesting. they clesrly don't believe the GFS.


View attachment 89987

Even so, the Euro is still safely ots, the shift as of now is really only a threat to Bermuda

edit: and potentially SE Canada, don't want to leave our northern neighbors out, eh?!

 

[Shaggy]

Even so, the Euro is still safely ots, the shift as of now is really only a threat to Bermuda

edit: and potentially SE Canada, don't want to leave our northern neighbors out, eh?!

View attachment 89988

It is......until it isn't. Thisnlooks set in stone though but after Florence I have a little caution on how quickly I buy an OTS forecast.

 

[SD]

Even so, the Euro is still safely ots, the shift as of now is really only a threat to Bermuda

edit: and potentially SE Canada, don't want to leave our northern neighbors out, eh?!

View attachment 89988

Your backyard is mighty close here. The euro was mighty close to hooking this into NS and potentially eastern Maine

 

[Shaggy]

He looks pretty stout this morning. See no reason to think he doesn't really ramp up quickly.

 

[Shaggy]

They don't look much better than Larry does at this stage. If he keeps it up he will be a hurricane by tomorrow morning.......or sooner.

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 27.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Up to 50 mph.

 

[Henry2326]

My concern is that it's forecast to be a major at 50w.
Majors tend to make their own path and clearly will over power any affects from Kate.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Downeastnc]

Sure looks like a "eye" like feature right at where the center appears to be.....Larry flexing a little this morning....

 

[Shaggy]

Gfs with another big shift

 

[lexxnchloe]

Gfs with another big shift

East? I sort of hope larry moves at 50 mph and gets out of the way so something more interesting can form.

 

[Shaggy]

East? I sort of hope larry moves at 50 mph and gets out of the way so something more interesting can form.

West early but follows the same recurve path. Just makes a sharper recurve.

 

[Downeastnc]

He aint wrong....they cant be mesovorts but it it does look cool...hell not even sure that is a "eye"

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Hope Larry goes away to look for his brother Darrel and his other brother Darryl.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This is a 65 mph tropical storm???? … that’s a major hurricane hahaha?????

 

[GaWx]

Hope Larry goes away to look for his brother Darrel and his other brother Darryl.

Newhart was one of the best. Loved it!

12Z Euro has Larry much further SW and his left side hits Bermuda on 9/9.
12z GEFS mean was also a good bit further W with many members threatening Bermuda with especially its left side and then Canada.

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET gets him down to 949 mb as it's recurving

TROPICAL STORM LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 26.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2021 0 12.4N 26.7W 1006 29
0000UTC 02.09.2021 12 12.5N 30.7W 1003 35
1200UTC 02.09.2021 24 12.6N 34.0W 1000 39
0000UTC 03.09.2021 36 13.4N 38.2W 997 42
1200UTC 03.09.2021 48 14.0N 41.7W 992 49
0000UTC 04.09.2021 60 15.2N 44.8W 982 56
1200UTC 04.09.2021 72 16.6N 47.8W 973 61
0000UTC 05.09.2021 84 18.8N 50.1W 969 65
1200UTC 05.09.2021 96 20.6N 52.5W 970 58
0000UTC 06.09.2021 108 22.5N 54.4W 964 66
1200UTC 06.09.2021 120 24.2N 56.3W 960 70
0000UTC 07.09.2021 132 25.9N 57.7W 954 78
1200UTC 07.09.2021 144 28.0N 58.9W 949 87

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Brent]

Wow certainly looks like a hurricane

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 29.4W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

70 mph. Hurricane tonight.

 

[Downeastnc]

 

[LickWx]

So it’s a good chance this thing corrects even further west . Combined with models tendency to overdo how quick they swing a trough through , I think this thing gets much closer than currently modeled even if OTS .