• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Larry

SD said:
If it were to stay weak and South through D5/6/7 it would be big trouble for the EC. As is with the early strengthening in most models its likely to get well north becoming a problem for Bermuda and SE Canada
Click to expand...

This guy actually suggest the opposite of what we would normally expect with regard to the weaker/wester idea we normally see.....

 
Downeastnc said:
This guy actually suggest the opposite of what we would normally expect with regard to the weaker/wester idea we normally see.....

Click to expand...

I actually think the wave behind it is the one to really watch. We may get into an Edouard/Fran scenario where the outflow from the first storm hampers the second and allows it to stay weak and west.

As for this storm it'll take something pretty significant changing with the main subtropical ridge just west of the Azores to get it well west imo. Not saying it's impossible but I don't see it even if it went WSW for a while
 
What the heck am I doing lol? Now reposting in the correct thread.

Almost all of these 31 12Z GEFS members should end up well OTS from the SE US: gfsen_12_mslps_ta_h_0228.png
 
TD 12

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 21.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
TD 12. Should be a good ACE producer for the next 1-2 weeks.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 21.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
The gfs has amd euro have been consistent with TD 12 so far.

I also ha ent forgotten that atleaat for a couple runs the gfs took grace up.the east coast and it went into Mexico and Ida was suppose to go into Mexico but hit Lousiana. Granted those runs weren't as persistent as the runs now with TD 12 and once it caught on with the other storms it was locked in and really good.

I guess we see how the next couple of days go.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top