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Tropical Hurricane Jose

You think ?
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LMAO Brian Norcross on TWC just said something along the lines of

"But we have the UKMET model sending it to Florida"
"Normally we wouldn't care about it, but it was first with Irma on the Western track".
"Something is wrong with the UKMET but we don't know what".

Made my freakin' day!
 
Sucks we don't know what's happening under the hood here with Jose right now w/o recon regarding its intensity and internal structure. As I mentioned a few days ago, in a case like this with a marginal, small TC and inherently unstable vortex, it's not out of the ordinary for a storm like Jose to relocate it's LLC downshear, further to the south, underneath the deeper convective canopy and higher cyclonic potential vorticity and if this somehow comes to pass, would put a massive wrench in the models... This might seem like a minor detail in the short term, but it matters a lot for the long term future of Jose...

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Webberweather53 said:
Sucks we don't know what's happening under the hood here with Jose right now w/o recon regarding its intensity and internal structure. As I mentioned a few days ago, in a case like this with a marginal, small TC and inherently unstable vortex, it's not out of the ordinary for a storm like Jose to relocate it's LLC downshear, further to the south, underneath the deeper convective canopy and higher cyclonic potential vorticity and if this somehow comes to pass, would put a massive wrench in the models... This might seem like a minor detail in the short term, but it matters a lot for the long term future of Jose...

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Very informative, and quite spot on (of course), Webb!
Thanks for the update (though personally I'm sick of, and could do without, any more) ... :confused:
 
For what it's worth, 12z UKMET ensembles... Noticed with Irma the UKMET ENS was way too far south & at one point had Irma tracking over the entire length of the Greater Antilles...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Despite being a huge western outlier at the moment, it's worth mentioning that the UKMET is beating all other NWP models with the track of Jose thus far at day 5, even the ECMWF....
View attachment 1208
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This graphic is bound to change a lot over the next couple days once Jose completes his loop so take these skill scores thus far w/ a grain of salt.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Despite being a huge western outlier at the moment, it's worth mentioning that the UKMET is beating all other NWP models with the track of Jose thus far at day 5, even the ECMWF....
View attachment 1208
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That is a big worry. Seeing it beating the other models 120 hours out is never a good sign when you want to see a system go OTS. Meanwhile, the HWRF is a bit SW and Jose almost looks like it's moving south per satellite.
 
On the other hand, in spite of what I just said regarding the UKMET's recent skill score scores with Jose at day 5, today's initialization of Jose's LLC was really bad and way too far to the SW.
Screen Shot 2017-09-12 at 8.23.52 PM.png
 
Something that gets me is how off from the others the UKMET is. We aren't talking about it going into N.Carolina. Either something is messed up or its about to score big time. There will be a crazy reaction if the Euro folds.
 
Something has to give soon I agree it's amazing to see the euro especially so far apart from the ukmet

I mean at least the gfs and cmc have it getting close to hitting the us well north of florida the euro is just a weak nothing that recurves
 
I know we can't really see where the center is on sat loop but it sure looks to be moving south at a good clip and south of forecast points by a good bit too.
 
Jose's low and mid level centers are currently separated by nearly 1 degree of latitude according to the latest microwave pass. As I've been mentioning the past few days, if a new LLC forms further south underneath the convective canopy and higher cyclonic potential vorticity downshear (to the south), it's going to throw a sizable wrench into this already convoluted forecast & probably increase the risk of impacts to landmasses adjacent to the SW Atlantic down the road and vis versa if the LLC further to the north hangs on. (even though the risk in either case still may not be terribly great)...
Let's all hope an LLC doesn't form or relocate further to the south underneath this robust mid level center....
DJkiGHGW0AEJPcy.jpg
 
"The microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more
southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion
estimate is now 125/8 kt."
 
GFS has definitely shifted majorly west today, if it does this again tomorrow it'll be hitting at least the OBX or further up

UKMET should be out in 15 minutes or so

Edit no coordinates yet but I'm hearing the UKMET shifted way east, well east of even the Bahamas much less Florida

Yup but has a beast hurricane between the US and Bermuda

1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87
 
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UKMET shifted east, very similar to the GFS' track, but it has a category 4 or 5 hurricane sitting precariously over the Gulf Stream south of Hatteras... (Ignore the wind)
HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87
 
GFS looks to stall around day 8, now about to hit the OBX/SE VA from the NORTHEAST :confused:

CMC stalls a bit then recurves offshore New England though its close enough for impacts
 
Might be worth watching invest 96E in the eastern Pacific. The GFS takes its remnants across the Gulf of Mexico and Central America and places them over Florida, breaking down the southern periphery of the ridge over the contiguous US, creating enough of a weakness to keep Jose a wee bit closer to the US. Need to pay attention to this feature over the coming days....
 
Euro is way OTS through 144, almost hits Bermuda​

At 168 it goes a bit closer to the NE US and then pretty much stalls midway between Bermuda and New England through 216

At 240 its moving west towards NJ/DE/MD :rolleyes:
 
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Brent said:
Euro is way OTS through 144, almost hits Bermuda​

At 168 it goes a bit closer to the NE US and then pretty much stalls midway between Bermuda and New England through 216

At 240 its moving west towards NJ/DE/MD :rolleyes:
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Yeah crazy how the Euro went west at the last of the run
 
ECMWF and its ensemble suite has been way too far north & east w/ Jose even just a few days out...

The UKMET on the other hand has been to far south & the last run makes a more realistic anticyclonic loop. A compromise towards what the GFS has been printing out is likely in order...

tr4.png

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Unless Jose relocates the llc southward I'm gonna lean towards ots.... however, almost all guidance shows the steering currents collapsing once again once it gets north with CMC drifting back towards US before heading NE, the GFS sends it SE before heading out (if you believe the gfs we will still be talking about Jose almost 2 weeks from now) and of course the Euro was heading west towards the NE at the end of it's run. We may eventually have a storm that never bother's anyone but that ending is long from being written..... crazy stuff.
 
I'm sure I'm looking at this wrong or there is better imagery somewhere but is that the center getting very close to 25N?
Capture.jpg
 
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