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Tropical Hurricane Jose

GFS has shifted back east this run, may be enough that it will not get turned back towards conus by the NE high....
 
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Good thing this run keeps Jose further offshore b/c once again just NW of Bermuda no steering currents and it's crawling... the 0z run that brought it into Va/NC also did this but the atlantic ridge was much stronger keeping Jose closer to the coast and allowing the NE ridge to build in over top. That's not the case this run.... so far
 
The CMC does another loop off the NE coast and eventually heads it ots.... wow what a messed up steering flow with some unique storm tracks
 
12z UKMET remains similar to the last run, has Jose 50-75 miles due east of Cape Hatteras at day 6 as a borderline category 3-4 hurricane. Still looks like the model is initializing Jose's intensity too high but it has come down considerably which may partially explain why it was further south & west vs other guidance for a while because the steering flow in the upper levels the next few days has a larger equatorward component vs low-level trade wind flow
HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z UKMET remains similar to the last run, has Jose 50-75 miles due east of Cape Hatteras at day 6 as a borderline category 3-4 hurricane. Still looks like the model is initializing Jose's intensity too high but it has come down considerably which may partially explain why it was further south & west vs other guidance for a while because the steering flow in the upper levels the next few days has a larger equatorward component vs low-level trade wind flow
HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68
Click to expand...

Dang it that's close....
GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
 
Most NWP, even the Euro is having a lot of problems w/ Jose's short term track forecast...

The euro is not even close inside 24 hours, way too far north...
Screen Shot 2017-09-13 at 12.53.33 PM.png
 
Fwiw and most likely due to proper initialization the Euro has Jose stronger through 48.... and at this rate we will have the end of the run in time for the 0z run tonight
 
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