Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Classic LOT precipitation distribution there, those usually bust high and further west verbatim.
Classic LOT precipitation distribution there, those usually bust high and further west verbatim.
Isaias is intensifying, multiple surface stations in the Dominican Republic are reporting sub 1000mb surface pressures and they are somewhat far removed from the center. Lowest I've seen thus far is 997mb, the most recent NHC advisory pegs Isaias at 1003mb, no doubt it's intensifying over land.
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Is it possible with the incoming though, Central SC could see some rain from the left side of storm??Classic LOT precipitation distribution there, those usually bust high and further west verbatim.
Interesting, it certainly looks like the structure is continuing to improve on satellite and I believe a few models yesterday showed it intensifying as it skirted the northern coastline (HWRF maybe?).
Yeah I certainly think this has significantly intensified since this morning, something in the ballpark of about 50-55 knots & 995mb central pressure seems about right given these surface observations and satellite trends throughout the day.
Getting that 9 look to it....The structure is so much better today
Who knew Hispaniola would be the best thing that happened to it lolView attachment 45484
Not going to lie a track from CHS to my house to just west of you isn't impossible. Just drawing a cone in my mind that is about the far west extent I could see. As it picks up northward speed that would certainly be less than idealGetting that 9 look to it....
I haven't looked in detail at the steering yet, but do you think this is a case of a stronger storm curving N a bit sooner or maybe enhancing the ridging somewhat and getting pushed a bit further west (or models possibly a bit too weak with ridging)?
I saw the Ukie coordinates posted but not the map, almost worst possible track for the OBX.... again just one model, but correct me if I'm wrong, Ukie was showing this strengthening and north turn before most other modeling?
View attachment 45485
I saw the Ukie coordinates posted but not the map, almost worst possible track for the OBX.... again just one model, but correct me if I'm wrong, Ukie was showing this strengthening and north turn before most other modeling?
View attachment 45485
Now expected to become a hurricane sometime tommorow.000
WTNT34 KNHC 302054
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020
...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 70.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwest Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of
Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
The Tropical Storm Warnings for the central and northwest Bahamas
may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings this evening or tonight.
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Lol it happens every season. I'm a bit more convinced this will ride the coast this time however. At least I learn. Troughs vs hurricanes always turn out the same.It’s funny I noticed this last hurricane season but everyone thinks the hurricane will go where they will get the most affect from it lol.
I remember @ForsythSnow was convinced that Dorian I think it was, was going to go into the gulf and strike the panhandle .... even as it struck N.C. he was convinced it was going to make a u turn and come up the Florida panhandle to give Atlanta a nice storm . Tongue in cheek here but that’s just one example lol. Not saying bad or good just saying this is definitely a thing here .
Lol it happens every season. I'm a bit more convinced this will ride the coast this time however. At least I learn. Troughs vs hurricanes always turn out the same.
Seeing several stations across the Dominican Republic whose pressures bottomed out at ~996mb, this airport in Puerto Plata is reporting a pressure of about 998mb atm (once you correct for the 23 mph wind being observed w/ 1000mb pressure) and it's still falling. Isaias might get getting close to becoming a hurricane already.
I was just gonna post if the center is in that blob 75 mph peak is gonna be conservative
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