Webberweather53
Meteorologist
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like it will be away from NC by Tuesday. I'm headed to the OBX Thursday. Hope it doesn't do too much damage.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Isaias is intensifying, multiple surface stations in the Dominican Republic are reporting sub 1000mb surface pressures and they are somewhat far removed from the center. Lowest I've seen thus far is 997mb, the most recent NHC advisory pegs Isaias at 1003mb, no doubt it's intensifying over land.
whatalife
Moderator
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
Interesting, it certainly looks like the structure is continuing to improve on satellite and I believe a few models yesterday showed it intensifying as it skirted the northern coastline (HWRF maybe?).
Is it possible with the incoming though, Central SC could see some rain from the left side of storm??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I certainly think this has significantly intensified since this morning, something in the ballpark of about 50-55 knots & 995mb central pressure seems about right given these surface observations and satellite trends throughout the day.
snowlover91
Member
I haven't looked in detail at the steering yet, but do you think this is a case of a stronger storm curving N a bit sooner or maybe enhancing the ridging somewhat and getting pushed a bit further west (or models possibly a bit too weak with ridging)?
Brent
Member
The structure is so much better today
Who knew Hispaniola would be the best thing that happened to it lol
Who knew Hispaniola would be the best thing that happened to it lol
I saw the Ukie coordinates posted but not the map, almost worst possible track for the OBX.... again just one model, but correct me if I'm wrong, Ukie was showing this strengthening and north turn before most other modeling?
Getting that 9 look to it....
Not going to lie a track from CHS to my house to just west of you isn't impossible. Just drawing a cone in my mind that is about the far west extent I could see. As it picks up northward speed that would certainly be less than ideal
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's gonna be a game of inches in eastern-central NC, because this NWP bias will be competing against downshear center reformation that wants to tug the circulation east. Not sure which one of those is going to win yet but it will undoubtedly make a massive difference in sensible impacts here
Brent
Member
It sure was I guess that's why it's one of the best models
Shaggy
Member
Its within a few miles of the euro as well that's a dangerous combo.
The gfs was first to show a storm over eastern NC last Satruday so it also deserves some credit for sniffing this out.
Downeastnc
Member
So now all the models have the center inland over NC at some point for the most parts....at least i will get some rain and all the rivers are at low levels....though most models have the thing scooting over us the Euro goes from landfall around ILM to Norfolk in 8ish hrs.....
Cadi40
Member
My only hope is that the ridge doesn’t push it further inland into NC.
Now expected to become a hurricane sometime tommorow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
New advisory says will become a hurricane and maintain.
Jessy89
Member
Of course it be a hurricane models was underestimating it for days
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, that sucks. Hope it stays far enough off the coast that the damage is minimal.
Tornadocane
Member
I'm probably going to be waving at this from Dania Beach, FL as it passes off to our East.
Shaggy
Member
This would spare pretty much everyone inland west of highway 17 but be rough for the coast. A bertha or fran 1996 track is what is needed to bring widespread major winds inland over NC and so far I'm ot getting that vibe here.
Downeastnc
Member
The real question is wind field, how organized of a core does this thing develop, how much does the wind field shrink and how far does it push out real strong winds.....also track inland more like Euro or sound skirter makes a big difference.
The latest Euro track give most of eastern NC cane or better gust IMO.....IF it can organize and develop a decent CDO and keep its large wind field,......the models all have this as a rather small system up here wind wise as well
This Euro run would be sub 990 mb in mby....still it seems like the models all really shrink up the storm....
The latest Euro track give most of eastern NC cane or better gust IMO.....IF it can organize and develop a decent CDO and keep its large wind field,......the models all have this as a rather small system up here wind wise as well
This Euro run would be sub 990 mb in mby....still it seems like the models all really shrink up the storm....
Shaggy
Member
Icon a few MB stronger and a tick NE at 66hrs trough digging pretty sharp
LickWx
Member
It’s funny I noticed this last hurricane season but everyone thinks the hurricane will go where they will get the most affect from it lol.
I remember @ForsythSnow was convinced that Dorian I think it was, was going to go into the gulf and strike the panhandle .... even as it struck N.C. he was convinced it was going to make a u turn and come up the Florida panhandle to give Atlanta a nice storm . Tongue in cheek here but that’s just one example lol. Not saying bad or good just saying this is definitely a thing here .
I remember @ForsythSnow was convinced that Dorian I think it was, was going to go into the gulf and strike the panhandle .... even as it struck N.C. he was convinced it was going to make a u turn and come up the Florida panhandle to give Atlanta a nice storm . Tongue in cheek here but that’s just one example lol. Not saying bad or good just saying this is definitely a thing here .
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol it happens every season. I'm a bit more convinced this will ride the coast this time however. At least I learn. Troughs vs hurricanes always turn out the same.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah you need a negative tilt or cut off to pull it inland.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Downeastnc
Member
18Z GFS comes west first landfall maybe over Cape Fear/ILM this time...then solid landfall call it Jacksonville/Swansboro
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Seeing several stations across the Dominican Republic whose pressures bottomed out at ~996mb, this airport in Puerto Plata is reporting a pressure of about 998mb atm (once you correct for the 23 mph wind being observed w/ 1000mb pressure) and it's still falling. Isaias might get getting close to becoming a hurricane already.
Brent
Member
I was just gonna post if the center is in that blob 75 mph peak is gonna be conservative
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Not going to be surprised if this thing gets huge and the track ends up being totally different with the way hurricanes have been the last few years. We have seen some blow up overnight into monsters and some end up changing forecasted tracks by hundreds of miles. Also, it's still 2020.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like that convective blow-up is SE of the center, low-level southeasterly flow getting orographically lifted over the eastern part of the DR coupled w/ convergence from Isaias's circulation seems to be at fault. The convection isn't favorably juxtaposed wrt the circulation (yet), you really wanna see a blow-up like that in the upshear left (SW-W quad).
Shaggy
Member
I was just looking and realize that Monday night is the full moon so it's going to be possibly making landfall at the worst possible time